Jamie's Market Thoughts: 06/16/11
A key risk indicator has reached a level last since in October 2008! A sharp rally ensued before the capitulation in March of 2009. Of course, equities are closer to an important top than bottom at this point but the implications are similar. That is, a rally in ‘risk’ (USD weakness) before the next surge in risk aversion.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio even higher than a few days ago, indicating that stocks may need to rally near term to correct a short term sentiment extreme. The ratio hasn’t been this high since the October 2008 low! That is not to say that the trend is NOT down – but a sharp advance looks likely before the next plunge. SPY volume was higher today than yesterday (volume like this usually occurs at a panic low). A small inside day on the Dow combined with Doji like candles on the S&P future, index, and SPY suggest at least a near term low. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20-25 point rally in the S&P from here but I’d be a seller of that strength (and USD buyer once the equity rally plays out). The implications are for some USD weakness from here before the uptrend resumes.
The 30 yr US bond reached a new high (low in yields) but still looks ‘toppy’. If this reverses, then USDJPY would probably go through the roof. With the USDJPY pulling back to support at 8050, I like the long side against 7950, targeting a test of the May high above 8200.
-EURUSD hammer pattern is near term bullish – look higher into 14300 (former support) and 14350 (20 day avg). Short term support is 14150.
-AUDUSD is basing near term and looks poised for a test of 10600/25 (50%-61.8% retracement). Short term support is at 10530.
-The NZDUSD last hour of the day bar looks similar to the 6/8 18:00 bar. The implications are for strength into 8115/70 before the next leg lower.
-USDCHF could slip to support down to 8425 but I’m maintain that a bullish stance against the 8325 low is correct when given upside potential from here.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
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