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US Dollar Long Term Technical Implications

US Dollar Long Term Technical Implications

2011-05-10 15:40:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Weekly Bars

TopHeadline_2_body_usd.png, US Dollar Long Term Technical Implications

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I want to present the weekly chart, which does make the case that a major low is forming. The disparity index is plotted below price (disparity index is the difference between the close and 40 day SMA expressed as a %). Since 2004, the USD index has formed lows when the index reaches roughly -6.5% to -7.5%. The recent low of -7.15% falls right within that range. What’s more, the decline from the March 2009 high consists of nearly 2 equal legs and last week’s candle carved out a bullish engulfing pattern. Lows sometimes takes time to form but the evidence is strong that the USD trend is reversing. Resistance in the coming days and weeks comes in at 7525/60 and 7688.

Support/Resistance Index (M,W,D) – 1, 2, 1

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