Financial Markets Position for Return to Risk/Safety Dichotomy
MSCI WORLD STOCK INDEX – Prices found support above late-May bottom at $1027.59, with a bullish Breakaway candlestick setup coupled positive RSI divergence hinting that a rebound is ahead. Initial resistance lines up at $1078.69, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 4/15-5/25 downswing.
US DOLLAR INDEX – The greenback has moved sharply lower, with a break of support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 4/14/2009-6/7/2010 downswing (84.37) opening the door for a move lower to the 61.8% level at 83.35. Continued selling beyond that would challenge the base of the recent multi-month advance near the 80 figure.
CRUDE OIL – Prices have continued to track lower after clearing the bottom of a bearish Rising Wedge formation appear, with initial support found at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 5/20-6/28 upswing ($71.81). A Doji candlestick at this juncture hints that a reversal higher may be ahead, although confirmation is required on the close of the current candle. Near-term resistance lines up at $73.50, the 38.2% Fib.
GOLD – Prices broke down as expected, overcoming support at the bottom of a Rising Wedge formation as well as the resistance-turned-support at mid-May swing top at $1240.00. We maintain that the near-term target from here remains the $1170.00 figure.
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