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Eur/Nok Still Confined to Range Before Upside Breakout

Eur/Nok Still Confined to Range Before Upside Breakout

2011-08-17 04:46:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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Eur/SekThe market recovery out from 8.70 remains intact despite the latest minor pullback and we look for a fresh higher low around 9.00 ahead of the next upside extension towards the 9.50 area further up. Weekly studies are looking even more constructive potentially with the formation of a major base. Ultimately, only a sustained break back below 9.00 would give reason for concern..

Usd/SekThe market looks to be in the process of a major structural shift, with the latest break back above the 6.40 area confirming a fresh higher low by 6.20 and exposing eventual gains towards 7.00 over the coming days. In the interim, any setbacks are now expected to be well supported above 6.30 on a daily close basis. The market is also trying to establish back above the 200-Day SMA which helps to reaffirm bias and strengthen constructive outlook.

Usd/Nok The latest successful defense down by 5.30 and subsequent break back above the 100-Day SMA reaffirms our constructive outlook for the pair and a fresh upside extension is now projected over the coming days back above the 200-Day SMA by 5.65 and towards the 5.85-90 area further up. This market has also not traded above the 200-Day SMA since 2010 and the push back above the longer-term SMA will strengthen the recovery outlook. Only below 5.30 negates and gives reason for pause, while dips towards the level should be bought.

Eur/NokWe believe are finally starting to see the formation of a potential base in the cross following the latest sharp bounce out from some very solid support in the 7.65-70 area. From here, look for an acceleration of gains through the multi-week range highs by 7.95, with further acceleration expected on a break above 8.00. However, until 7.95 exceeded, we can expect more range trade.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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