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Krona Still Not Confirming Latest US Dollar Weakness

Krona Still Not Confirming Latest US Dollar Weakness

2011-02-25 07:01:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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Usd/SekRemains under some intense pressure with the market trading just off of the yearly and multi-week lows from several days back at 6.36. However, with daily studies looking stretched, there is the risk for some corrective upside ahead. A bullish reversal week would definitely help the USD’s cause here and we would need to see a break above 6.55 to encourage these reversal prospects. Back above 6.55 also sets up a potential double bottom formation that opens a recovery to 6.70 over the coming sessions. We often find that the Scandi currencies lead the FX market and failure for USD/SEK to break lower on Wednesday and Thursday despite a push higher in the Euro could be warning of a false upside break in the Euro which suggests that we could see broad USD strength ahead.

Eur/SekThe market could finally be in the process of carving a material base with the latest setbacks being very well supported by 8.70 and resulting in the latest bullish reversal back towards key resistance at 8.85. Look for a break and close back above 8.85 to officially confirm short-term bullish reversal and open the door for a more significant recovery towards 9.00 further up. Any setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 8.75.

Eur/NokWe are finally starting to see the formation of a potential base in the cross after the market had dropped to fresh multi-year lows by 7.70. At this point, the latest rally has stalled out ahead of 8.00, and for the recovery to continue, we would need to see a higher low somewhere above 7.70 to be confirmed on a sustained break back above 7.95 and through psychological barriers by 8.00. A break and close back below 7.70 would negate.

Usd/Nok remains under intense pressure with the market now looking to establish below critical medium-term support at 5.70. A sustained move below 5.70 would then expose a more significant decline back towards 5.50, while a break back above 5.75 would now be required to alleviate downside pressures.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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