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Scandi Daily 07.16

Scandi Daily 07.16

2010-07-16 04:35:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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OVERVIEW – We have already established long positions in Usd/Sek and Eur/Sek, and we are now focused on Usd/Nok and considering establishing a fresh long position there as well. The currency pair has finally pulled back to test the 100-Day SMA, and this longer-term moving average has done a good job of supporting the market over the past several months. Fundamentally, the regionals continue to trade off of the broader global macro themes, and lately it has been to buy anything and everything but the USD. However, the buck has been beaten down quite a bit and we think a reversal is very near, which could ultimately force some reversals in the regional currencies.     
  
scandical7.16
 
Eur/Sek As expected, we are finally starting see a bit of a bounce with the market oversold and in need of some corrective action. A bullish outside day on Thursday confirms constructive outlook and we are well positioned with a long already established in the precious session. Look for some fresh upside over the coming days back towards 9.6000. Long @ 9.3850 for an open objective; stop 9.3450.  
 
Eur/Nok Despite the latest setbacks below 8.00, price action still remains constructive since early June with the market posting a series of higher lows and higher highs. Look for a higher low to carve out by 7.91 ahead of the next upside extension back above 8.12 over the coming days.  
 
Usd/Sek Our long trade from late Wednesday has not gone well, with the market continuing to drop sharply in Thursday trade. However, we are still a good deal away from our stop and with the daily RSI well below 30, we like our chances for the anticipated bounce into Friday trade. Long by 7.36 with stops placed by 7.19, in anticipation of a reversal back towards 7.80 at a minimum. Look for a break back above 7.40 to confirm basing and accelerate.   
 
Usd/Nok Despite the latest pullback, the market still remains confined to a broader uptrend, and any additional setbacks should now be limited to the 100-Day SMA by 6.17, which has propped for a large majority of the year. As such, we recommend looking to buy into the current dip to the 100-Day should in anticipation of a bullish resumption.  
 
Gbp/Nok Has been in an impressive bull channel since mid-March, with the market rallying to the 9.80 area ahead of the latest minor pullback below 9.50. However, bull channel support now comes in at current levels around 9.50, and we would look for a fresh higher low to carve out ahead of the next major upside extension. 
 
Nok/Jpy Market confines to a 13.50-14.50 range since May, with the price currently locked somewhere in the middle of this range and looking to retest the range highs by 14.50 over the coming days. Ultimately, the overriding trend still remains quite bearish, so any rallies towards 14.50 should be sold. 
 
 
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 
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