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Scandi Daily 05.26

Scandi Daily 05.26

2010-05-26 04:56:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
OVERVIEW – The broad based rally in currencies on Tuesday, and resurgence in risk appetite proved to be most helpful to the regional currencies, which also managed to reverse sharply from their respective yearly lows against the buck, and close back by daily opening levels. The price action is certainly indicative of a short-term reversal and could suggest that the USD buying has stopped for now in favor of some additional broad based currency strength. However, one session of risk appetite is not enough to leave us convinced and we suspect any additional rallies in the NOK and SEK will ultimately be short-lived.    
Eur/Sek An interim base and 2010 low looks to be in place just ahead of 9.50, with the market in the process of unwinding from oversold levels. Longer-term technicals show room for plenty of additional corrective gains, and the latest break back above 9.89 helps to confirm recovery structure and open the door for a push above 10.00. .  
Eur/Nok A very well defined bear channel dating back to mid-2009 looks to have finally been violated, with the market rallying sharply back above 8.00 and suggesting that a key low has been set down by 7.67, in favor of additional gains over the medium-term back towards the 8.40-50 area. We would recommend looking for opportunities to buy on dips.   
Usd/Sek The market continues to extend gains to fresh 2010 highs, with the price rallying just over 8.00 thus far before stalling out. For now, there is some risk for a pullback to allow for short-term studies to unwind, but any setbacks are expected to be well supported ahead of 7.40, in favor of the next upside extension beyond 8.00 and towards 8.20 further up. 
Usd/Nok The market continues to extend gains to fresh 2010 highs, with a test of next key barriers by 6.70 seen over the coming sessions. For now, there is some risk for a pullback to allow for short-term studies to unwind, but any setbacks are expected to be well supported ahead of 6.20, in  favor of the next upside extension beyond 6.70 and towards 7.00 further up.
Gbp/Nok Rallies have stalled out by critical multi-week resistance in the 9.50 area, and from here it is difficult to offer and clear directional bias. A clear break and close above 9.50 will be required to force a more significant shift in the structure, while failure to do so will suggest more range trade ahead and a pullback back towards the 9.00 handle.  
Nok/Jpy Had been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several months, largely defined between 14.00 and 16.50. However, the lower end of this range has now been broken, with the cross dropping to trade below 14.00. This now opens the door for a retest of the key multi-year lows from early 2009 by 12.00.  
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 
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