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Scandi Daily 05.24

Scandi Daily 05.24

2010-05-24 05:26:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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OVERVIEW – The Norwegian PM has said that the country will stick to its plan to scale back stimulus measures, and this could be weighing on the Scandi in recent trade, with the move seen as somewhat questionable given some softer than expected GDP data and the escalating crisis in the Eurozone. We have already seen some major rallies in the Euro against both the NOK and SEK over the past several days, and as we have written in previous commentary, longer-term technical studies continue to warn of some major basing in the EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK crosses. Meanwhile, NOK/JPY has dropped to a fresh yearly low and now looks to potentially retest the key 2009 multi-year lows by 12.00 over the coming weeks.  
 
scandical5.24
 
Eur/Sek An interim base and 2010 low looks to be in place just ahead of 9.50, with the market in the process of unwinding from oversold levels. Longer-term technicals show room for plenty of additional corrective gains, and the latest break back above 9.89 helps to confirm recovery structure and open the door for a push above 10.00. .  
 
Eur/Nok A very well defined bear channel dating back to mid-2009 looks to have finally been violated, with the market rallying sharply back above 8.00 and suggesting that a key low has been set down by 7.67, in favor of additional gains over the medium-term back towards the 8.40-50 area. We would recommend looking for opportunities to buy on dips.   
 
Usd/Sek The market continues to extend gains to fresh 2010 highs, with the market rallying to 8.00 thus far before stalling out. For now, there is some risk for a pullback to allow for short-term studies to unwind, but any setbacks are expected to be well supported ahead of 7.40, in favor of the next upside extension beyond 8.00 and towards 8.20 further up. 
 
Usd/Nok The market continues to extend gains to fresh 2010 highs, with a test of next key barriers by 6.60 seen over the coming sessions. For now, there is some risk for a pullback to allow for short-term studies to unwind, but any setbacks are expected to be well supported ahead of 6.20, in  favor of the next upside extension beyond 6.60 and towards 7.00 further up.
 
Gbp/Nok As we had written in previous commentary, the market was very well supported by the 9.00 handle, with a multi-day consolidation holding just above the figure and finally breaking to the upside back towards next key topside resistance by 9.50. Look for a test of 9.50 over the coming days. 
 
scandi5.24
 
Nok/Jpy Had been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several months, largely defined between 14.00 and 16.50. However, the lower end of this range has now been broken, with the cross dropping to trade below 14.00. This now opens the door for a retest of the key multi-year lows from early 2009 by 12.00.  
 
 
 
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 
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