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Scandi Daily 05.18

Scandi Daily 05.18

2010-05-18 05:22:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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OVERVIEW – The regional currencies still remain quite bid against the Euro and track by their respective 2010 highs, with no immediate sign of any form of a significant reversal. We were somewhat surprised to see this relative outperformance following a trading session on Monday which saw the commodity currencies start to bounce and reverse from their respective multi-year highs against the Euro. While there was some selling in both the Nok and Sek against the Euro on Monday, it paled in comparison to the selling seen in the commodity bloc. Perhaps the latest currency forecasts published by HSBC can be attributed to the NOK strength, with the bank calling for the Krone to be the top performing currency in 2010 as Norway’s fiscal surplus, economic growth and prospects for interest rate increases, make the single currency highly attractive. 
  
scandical5.18
 
Eur/Sek The recent 9.55 yearly lows have been broken and the break below now opens the next downside extension to test key psychological support at 9.50. Only back above 9.63 would delay bearish structure and force a shift in outlook.  However, the bullish close from last Thursday after setting fresh 2010 lows just ahead of 9.50 could warn of the start to some form of a bounce. 
 
scandi5.18
 
Eur/Nok Has broken to fresh 2010 lows by 7.68 after easily clearing barriers by 8.00 in recent trade. Daily studies are however looking stretched and we would not rule out the potential for a bounce from here. Nevertheless, a break back above 8.05 will be required at a minimum to get things moving and reaffirm basing prospects. However, the market has put in a doji close on Monday to warn of potential indecision and the onset of a major corrective bounce. Back under 7.68 negates. 
 
Usd/Sek The market has been locked in some bullish consolidation since breaking to fresh 2010 highs by 7.86 in the previous week. From here, look for any setbacks to be well supported ahead of 7.40, in favor of the next major upside extension beyond 7.86 and towards 8.00-8.20 further up. 
 
Usd/Nok The market has been locked in some bullish consolidation since breaking to fresh 2010 highs by 6.32 in the previous week. From here, look for any setbacks to be well supported ahead of 6.00, in favor of the next major upside extension beyond 6.32 and towards 6.50 further up. 
 
Gbp/Nok The market has finally reached our 9.20 inverse head & shoulders objective after breaking out from a multi-day consolidation in the 9.10 area. From here, we look for current setbacks to be well propped by the 9.00 handle, ahead of the next upside extension towards 9.40-50 over the coming weeks. 
 
Nok/Jpy Has been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several months, largely defined between 14.00 and 16.50. Setbacks have once again been well propped by 14.00 ahead of the latest sharp bounce back into the mid-range, and we continue to recommend playing the range high-lows.
 

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