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Scandi Daily 05.14

Scandi Daily 05.14

2010-05-14 04:55:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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OVERVIEW – The economic calendar in the region is empty for Friday and the regional currencies will be looking to take their cues of the broader global macro fundamental developments. The Eurozone debt crisis is the main focus and regional investors will be watching closely to see how things play out.  However, even in the face of the crisis, the Scandis have managed to outperform many of the major currencies. We remain focused on the Eur/Nordic crosses, and as contrarians, continue to see these crosses approaching a major base, with medium-term and longer-term technical studies warning of a potential reversal back in favor of the Euro. Aggressive Eur/Scandi cross bulls, may want to take a shot following Thursday’s closes in Eur/Sek and Eur/Nok.      
 
scandical5.14
 
Eur/Sek The recent 9.55 yearly lows have been broken and the break below now opens the next downside extension to test key psychological support at 9.50. Only back above 9.90 would delay bearish structure and force a shift in outlook.  However, a bullish close on Thursday after setting fresh 2010 lows just ahead of 9.50 could warn of the start to some form of a bounce. 
 
Eur/Nok Has broken to fresh 2010 lows by 7.75 after easily clearing barriers by 8.00 in recent trade. Daily studies are however looking stretched and we would not rule out the potential for a bounce from here. Nevertheless, a break back above 8.05 will be required at a minimum to get things moving and reaffirm basing prospects. However, the market has put in a bullish hammer-like close on the daily, after setting yet another fresh 2010 low by 7.72 on Thursday. This could warn of some short-term basing. 
 
Usd/Sek The market has been locked in some bullish consolidation since breaking to fresh 2010 highs by 7.86 in the previous week. From here, look for any setbacks to be well supported ahead of 7.40, in favor of the next major upside extension beyond 7.86 and towards 8.00-8.20 further up. 
 
Usd/Nok The market has been locked in some bullish consolidation since breaking to fresh 2010 highs by 6.32 in the previous week. From here, look for any setbacks to be well supported ahead of 6.00, in favor of the next major upside extension beyond 6.32 and towards 6.50 further up. 
 
Gbp/Nok The market has finally reached our 9.20 inverse head & shoulders objective after breaking out from a multi-day consolidation in the 9.10 area. From here, we look for any setbacks to be well propped by the 9.00 handle, ahead of the next upside extension towards 9.40-50 over the coming weeks. 
 
Nok/Jpy Has been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several months, largely defined between 14.00 and 16.50. Setbacks have once again been well propped by 14.00 ahead of the latest sharp bounce back into the mid-range, and we continue to recommend playing the range high-lows.
 
 
 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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