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Scandi Daily 05.11

Scandi Daily 05.11

2010-05-11 05:46:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
OVERVIEW – Though the regional currencies remain under some pressure against the USD, which is broadly bid, both the NOK and SEK continue to show an outperformance against most of the other major currencies. The local economies have proven to be quite resilient in the face of any widespread global economic deterioration and market participants continue to look to these economies as an attractive investment in the current market environment. Eur/Nok and Eur/Sek trade by their respective yearly lows and are now at risk to extend declines in Tuesday trade. Looking ahead, Swedish inflation will be the key data release to watch.   
Eur/Sek The recent 9.55 yearly lows are back under pressure and a break below will open the next downside extension to test next key psychological support at 9.50. Only back above 9.90 would delay bearish structure and force a shift in outlook.  
Eur/Nok Has broken to fresh 2010 lows by 7.78 after easily clearing next downside barriers by 8.00 in recent trade. Daily studies are however looking stretched and we would not rule out the potential for a bounce from here. Nevertheless, a break back above 8.05 will be required at a minimum to get things moving and reaffirm basing prospects. 
Usd/Sek Our view is highly constructive at current levels and favors continued USD appreciation over the coming weeks.  The break to fresh 2010 highs above 7.52 now officially confirms a medium-term higher low by 7.00 and opens the next upside extension towards 8.00-8.20 over the coming weeks. Look for setbacks to now be well supported in the 7.30-40 area.  
Usd/Nok The overall structure remains grossly constructive and a fresh medium-term higher low by 5.80 is now confirmed following the latest break to fresh 2010 highs beyond 6.10. From here, the risks are for additional gains, with the next key medium-term target coming in by 6.40 over the coming weeks. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 5.95.  
Gbp/Nok The market has finally reached our 9.20 inverse head & shoulders objective after breaking out from a multi-day consolidation in the 9.10 area. From here, we look for any setbacks to be well propped by the former resistance now turned support on a close basis at 9.10, ahead of the next upside extension towards 9.30-40 over the coming weeks. 
Nok/Jpy Has been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several months, largely defined between 14.00 and 16.50. Setbacks have once again been well propped by 14.00 ahead of the latest sharp bounce back into the mid-range, and we continue to recommend playing the range high-lows.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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