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Scandi Daily 05.06

Scandi Daily 05.06

2010-05-06 06:27:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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OVERVIEW – The Norges Bank rate decision has come and gone, and while the central bank did indeed hike rates by 25bps to 2.00%, we were somewhat surprised to see the more hawkish than expected accompanying central bank statement. We were caught off guard by the line in which the Norges Bank expressed a diminished concern over the threat of a strengthening currency on the local economy. While the impact of this hawkish tone was less felt through price action against the Euro and USD, traders with positions in NOK/SEK were exposed to substantial volatility. The Scandi cross skyrocketed on the news and was one of the biggest movers on the day, as the bullish NOK comments were met with an equally bearish SEK market that was under pressure on the back of the elevated levels of risk aversion. We do however believe that NOK bulls are at risk over the coming sessions, as the possibility of additional rate hikes from Norway in the face of the current global macro environment could indeed be counter-productive and stifle the local economy. 
 
scandical5.6  
 
Eur/Sek The market has turned up quite sharply over the past few sessions and a base could finally be in place by 9.55. However, we will need to see a break and close back above 9.80 to confirm medium-term basing prospects and accelerate gains. For now, we recommend the sidelines. 
 
Eur/Nok Has broken to fresh 2010 lows by 7.78 after easily clearing next downside barriers by 8.00 in recent trade. Daily studies are however looking stretched and we would not rule out the potential for a bounce from here. Nevertheless, a break back above 8.86 will be required at a minimum to get things moving and reaffirm basing prospects. 
 
Usd/Sek Our view is highly constructive at current levels and favors continued USD appreciation over the coming weeks.  The break to fresh 2010 highs above 7.52 now officially confirms a medium-term higher low by 7.00 and opens the next upside extension towards 8.00 over the coming weeks. Look for setbacks to now be well supported in the 7.30-40 area.  
 
Usd/Nok The overall structure remains grossly constructive and a fresh medium-term higher low by 5.80 is now confirmed following the latest break to fresh 2010 highs beyond 6.10. From here, the risks are for additional gains, with the next key medium-term target coming in by 6.40 over the coming weeks. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 5.95.  
 
Gbp/Nok The market has finally reached our 9.20 inverse head & shoulders objective after breaking out from a multi-day consolidation in the 9.10 area. From here, we look for any setbacks to be well propeed by the former resistance now turned support at 9.10, ahead of the next upside extension towards 9.30-40 over the coming weeks. 
 
Nok/Jpy Has been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several weeks, largely defined between 15.00 and 16.50. Setbacks have once again been well propped in the 15.00 area ahead of the latest bounce back into the mid-range, and we continue to recommend playing the range high-lows.
 
 
 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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