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Scandi Daily 05.04

Scandi Daily 05.04

2010-05-04 06:05:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
OVERVIEW – A very solid round of PMI data on Monday has helped to keep the regional currencies well bid against most of the major currencies, with both the NOK and SEK managing to hold onto impressive gains against the beleaguered Euro. Norwegian PMI was the clear stand out, with the data showing the pace of manufacturing at its highest level in two years. However, it is clear the Norges Bank has reached an inflection point with its policy and needs to find a proper balance between some solid local data, and the threat of potentially tightening monetary policy too aggressively in the face of some broader global macro economic concerns. Australia has gone ahead and hiked rates to 4.50%, but has also signaled that rates are set to stay where they are for a while. This is an approach that the Norges Bank has also adopted after hiking rates, and we believe will continue to do so, as concerns of the appreciation in the local currency mount. Technically, the Euro/Scandi crosses are looking oversold on a medium to longer-term basis, and we will look for opportunities to fade Scandi strength at current levels. 
Eur/Sek Once again attempting to carve out a base after stalling out by fresh 2010 lows at 9.55 in the previous week. However, the overall trend remains grossly bearish, and a break back above 9.80 will be required at a minimum to force a shift in the structure and open additional corrective upside. Next key support comes in by 9.50.
Eur/Nok The market is threatening a bearish continuation, with the latest break below 7.90 helping to confirm and negate any hopes for the formation of a material base. Next support comes in by 7.80, with a break below to accelerate further, while back above 8.00 is now required to take the pressure off of the downside and keep recovery hopes intact.
Usd/Sek Our view is highly constructive at current levels and favors continued USD appreciation over the coming weeks.  We contend the market is attempting to carve out a major base rather than in the process of some bearish consolidation. Any setbacks are expected to be well supported by 7.00, with a higher low sought out ahead of the next major upside extension  towards 7.50-75 over the medium-term. 
Usd/Nok The overall structure remains grossly constructive and a fresh medium-term higher low is sought out by 5.80 to be confirmed on an eventual break back above the current yearly highs at 6.10, which will expose 6.30-50 further up. Only a weekly close back below 5.80 would give reason for pause. 
Gbp/Nok Our outlook remains constructive since the cross formed an inverse h&s base back in March and we look for any setbacks to now be well supported in the 9.00 area which acts as previous neckline resistance now turned support. Fresh upside is seen back towards 9.20-30 over the coming days.
Nok/Jpy Has been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several weeks, largely defined between 15.00 and 16.50. Setbacks have once again been well propped in the 15.00 area ahead of the latest bounce back into the mid-range, and we continue to recommend playing the range high-lows.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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