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Scandi Daily 05.03

Scandi Daily 05.03

2010-05-03 05:12:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
Share:
OVERVIEW – Although fundamentals don’t seem to be aligning themselves with our technical views, we continue to look for opportunities to fade the current regional strength against the Euro, in anticipation of some major relative Scandi weakness over the coming months. The catalyst for the trade would mostly likely come on the back of another broad based wave of risk aversion, economic deterioration, and global equity selling. Both the Norges Bank and Riksbank have been relatively hawkish, and any signs of a regression back into a more balanced approach to monetary policy will be viewed as an opportunity to short the Scandi currencies. A slew of PMI data is scheduled in European trade today, with both Norway and Sweden set for the release of this economic data. 
 
scandical5.3
 
Eur/Sek Once again attempting to carve out a base after stalling out by fresh 2010 lows at 9.55 in the previous week. However, the overall trend remains grossly bearish, and a break back above 9.80 will be required at a minimum to force a shift in the structure and open additional corrective upside. Next key support comes in by 9.50.
 
Eur/Nok The market is threatening a bearish continuation, with the latest break below 7.90 will helping to confirm and negate any hopes for the formation of a material base. Below 7.90 opens a fresh downside extension towards 7.80, while back above 8.00 is now required to take the pressure off of the downside and keep recovery hopes intact.
 
Usd/Sek Our view is highly constructive at current levels and favors continued USD appreciation over the coming weeks.  We contend the market is attempting to carve out a major base rather than in the process of some bearish consolidation. Any setbacks are expected to be well supported by 7.00, with a higher low sought out ahead of the next major upside extension  towards 7.50-75 over the medium-term. 
 
Usd/Nok The overall structure remains grossly constructive and a fresh medium-term higher low is sought out by 5.80 to be confirmed on an eventual break back above the current yearly highs at 6.10, which will expose 6.30-50 further up. Only a weekly close back below 5.80 would give reason for pause. 
 
Gbp/Nok Our outlook remains constructive since the cross formed an inverse h&s base back in March and we look for any setbacks to now be well supported in the 9.00 area which acts as previous neckline resistance now turned support. Fresh upside is seen back towards 9.20-30 over the coming days.
 
Nok/Jpy Has been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several weeks, largely defined between 15.00 and 16.50. Setbacks have once again been well propped in the 15.00 area ahead of the latest bounce back into the mid-range, and we continue to recommend playing the range high-lows.
 
 
 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com 

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