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Scandi Daily 02.26

Scandi Daily 02.26

2010-02-26 05:56:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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OVERVIEW – The krona has managed to just squeak out the top performing currency spot on the day against the buck, with the single currency up some 0.36%, just ahead of Kiwi. The krone has also recovered a bit, and it seems as though the currency markets in general could be poised for some corrective upside against the buck. As always however, and particularly in this region, the moves will be predicated on global risk appetite and risk aversion themes. We would however recommend that traders look to build long Eur/Sek positions at current levels, with the cross severely oversold and in need of some major corrective upside. 

scandical2.26


Eur/Sek Latest bearish price action has delayed hope for an immediate recovery, with the market extending declines to fresh yearly lows through 9.75. Nevertheless, with daily studies trading in deep oversold territory, the risk of a major corrective rally is significant, and we continue to like the idea of looking to build a long position at current levels. Only a close back below 9.70 would give reason for concern. Longs at current levels should continue to hold.

Eur/Nok While daily studies are not as overdone as in Eur/Sek, we contend that a meaningful low has also been put in by the 8 handle last Wednesday and Thursday, with Thursday’s strong bullish outside day confirming bias. From here, look for some renewed strength back towards the recent range highs at 8.26 over the coming days.

Usd/Sek our view is highly constructive at current levels and favors continued USD appreciation over the coming weeks.  We contend the market is attempting to carve out a major base rather than in the process of some bearish consolidation. Any setbacks are expected to be well supported by 7.00, with a higher low sought out ahead of the next major upside extension  towards 7.50-75 over the medium-term.

Usd/Nok has just managed to clear the multi-week range highs by 5.90 and we believe this now opens some fresh medium-term upside over the coming weeks. Look for a higher low to now carve out by 5.80 in favor of a bullish resumption back above 6.05 over the coming days.

Gbp/Nok in the process of rolling back over after stalling by the multi-day range highs just over 9.50. Look for the latest pullback into the 9.10-15 area to now be well supported ahead of an eventual sustained break above 9.50 which should open some medium-term gains towards the 10 handle over the coming weeks. Only a close back below 9.00 ultimately gives reason for concern. 

Nok/Jpy
has been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several weeks, largely defined between 15.00 and 16.50. Rallies have once again been well propped in the 15.00 area ahead of the latest bounce back into the range. From here, we recommend continuing to play the range.

 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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