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US Dollar Loses Support as Treasury Yields Retrace from Recent Highs

US Dollar Loses Support as Treasury Yields Retrace from Recent Highs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- JPY-crosses hit new highs overnight; GBPJPY tags ¥170.00.

- Light calendar day; few significant data in Europe, none in North America.

- Concerted Dollar pullback lends itself to strength in high yielding, EM FX.

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(vs USD)








Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.39% (-0.11% prior 5-days)


The US Dollar continues to reel in the wake of the November NFP report, despite the headline beat (+203K versus +185K expected). Market participants have seemingly taken the data as a sign that, yes, the Federal Reserve will taper QE3, but no, there won’t be higher interest rates anytime soon.

US Treasury yields in the belly of the curve have weakened from their peaks (the 10YY is down near 2.830%, from 2.910% on Friday), and have been falling the past few days leading to a weaker US Dollar:

US_Dollar_Loses_Support_as_Treasury_Yields_Retrace_from_Recent_Highs_body_Chart_1.png, US Dollar Loses Support as Treasury Yields Retrace from Recent Highs

Since late-November, the USDOLLAR (equal weighted index of the USD versus the AUD, EUR, GBP, and JPY) has failed to post two consecutive down days; the November 28 and 29 duo was capped by a Doji, hardly bearish). This pattern has broken today, with a second consecutive down bar as price slips below its 8-, 21-, and 34-EMAs:

USDOLLAR Daily Chart: July 9 to Present

US_Dollar_Loses_Support_as_Treasury_Yields_Retrace_from_Recent_Highs_body_Picture_1.png, US Dollar Loses Support as Treasury Yields Retrace from Recent Highs

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- The USDOLLAR has lost uptrend support off of the October 23 and November 20 lows.

- Price is thus far respecting daily 34-EMA as support, as it did on November 6 and 7, and then again on November 19 and 20.

- A break below 10580 would open up room for a move lower into 10535 and 10490/500 over the coming sessions.

- Bulls not secure until price above December highs, 10670.


US_Dollar_Loses_Support_as_Treasury_Yields_Retrace_from_Recent_Highs_body_x0000_i1029.png, US Dollar Loses Support as Treasury Yields Retrace from Recent Highs

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.