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Euro Advances Moderately as Traders Look to 'Half' US Session

Euro Advances Moderately as Traders Look to 'Half' US Session

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- US bond markets are closed on Monday for Veteran’s Day; stock markets remain open.

- Light calendar this week offers little by way of data on Monday.

- Euro rebounding modestly across the board, faces $1.3400 against US Dollar.

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(vs USD)








Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.09% (+0.60% prior 5-days)


Price action around the US Dollar is overall constrained on Monday, with slight advances developing for the Euro and the Swiss Franc (likely on short-term oversold conditions), while the higher yielding currencies have lagged. The Australian Dollar is down by -0.29% versus the buck, and the Kiwi is up a paltry +0.01%. If the environment was more prone to risk, we’d expect these commodity currencies to be leading, not trailing.

The slowdown in momentum among risk assets isn’t a coincidence – there is a ‘half’ trading session in the US today. That is to say, equity markets will be open but bond markets will be closed. Interest rate sensitive assets across the globe are likely to move slower than they would otherwise, until rates come back online for the Tuesday trading session.

With the US Dollar lacking the spark for a continuation higher – a follow through on higher yields (impossible with bonds closed) – the Euro has also seen its footing firm on stronger peripheral European debt. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.229% (-3.3-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.389% (-0.6-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-yaer note yield has decreased to 4.117% (-1.7-bps) while the Spanish 10-year yield has decreased to 4.082% (-2.3-bps).

EURUSD H4 Chart: September 11 to Present

Euro_Advances_Moderately_as_Traders_Look_to_Half_US_Session_body_x0000_i1027.png, Euro Advances Moderately as Traders Look to 'Half' US Session

Despite the better than expected US NFPs on Friday, the EURUSD managed an Inside Day and has formed a Symmetrical Triangle on the H4 timeframes and lower. While we favor a break lower after the EURUSD settled below two key levels of support last week – the uptrend off of the July and September lows, and horizontal support dating back to September 18 – time is a factor and failure to move lower could result in a profit taking/short covering rally higher in the early part of the week.

Accordingly, $1.3415/45 to the upside should be noted as a zone of key resistance, and time carved out above this region would suggest a more concerted rebound is possible. Concurrently, a drop through 1.3340 would set up another test of 1.3290/3300, paving the way for 1.3250 and 1.3100/20.

Read more: Euro Hobbled by ECB, NFPs – Will 3Q GDP Reports Confirm Fears?


There are no data on the North American calendar (CAD, USD) for Monday, November 11, 2013.

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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