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Pre-FOMC Rebound Continues for Dollar but Incoming Data Poses Risk

Pre-FOMC Rebound Continues for Dollar but Incoming Data Poses Risk

2013-10-29 11:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Verbal intervention from RBA knocks down Australian Dollar.

- Japanese Yen boosted by jobs, sales data, showing improving economy.

- US event risk high this morning ahead of FOMC tomorrow.

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(vs USD)








Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.23% (+0.66% prior 5-days)


FX markets remain rather complacent but risk trends have failed to capitalize, with the US Dollar posting its third consecutive day of gains ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting tomorrow. Typically, depressed volatility conditions tend to be supportive of risk-appetite. However, despite the JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index falling to 7.48% yesterday – the lowest since December 21, 2012 – the commodity currency bloc remains under pressure.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars lead to the downside as Chinese liquidity concerns continue to hold, despite a modest ¥13B intervention by the People’s Bank of China overnight. 1-week Chinese money market rates continue to rise, hitting a three-month high yesterday at 4.947%, the ninth consecutive daily gain. While these tighter credit conditions are artificial – the government has pushed them here by design – the commodity currencies will evidently remain under pressure until short-term Chinese interest rates ease.

AUDUSD5-minute Chart: October 29, 2013 Intraday

Pre-FOMC_Rebound_Continues_for_Dollar_but_Incoming_Data_Poses_Risk_body_x0000_i1027.png, Pre-FOMC Rebound Continues for Dollar but Incoming Data Poses Risk

Global interest rates may take a swing lower over the next 24-48 hours regardless of what’s going on in China in the near-term as the Fed will undoubtedly move markets tomorrow. We believe that the Fed will maintain QE3 on hold at $85B/month as a result of weakening US economic data in August, September, and now October.

Accordingly, the US Dollar may be at risk today and see its pre-FOMC rebound stunted as there are two significant pieces of data on the economic calendar (as noted below). All the data directly relates to consumption trends, and considering that over 70% of US GDP is based on consumption, the expected weakness seen in the Advance Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence reports could indicate that the US economy is weaker than most believe.

Read more: Europe’s Relative Calm Boosting Interest in the Euro


Pre-FOMC_Rebound_Continues_for_Dollar_but_Incoming_Data_Poses_Risk_body_Picture_1.png, Pre-FOMC Rebound Continues for Dollar but Incoming Data Poses Risk

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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