We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Trade Balance (FEB), Actual: 4.36B Expected: A$3750m Previous: A$5210m https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-04-07
  • The Federal Reserve has made a powerful statement about its commitment to shoring up offshore $USD funding markets through the #coronavirus spread. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/fLZjxjr4L9 https://t.co/bqKPilAihX
  • Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary: - The economy is facing its biggest crisis in recent years (BBG)
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 AUD Trade Balance (FEB) due at 01:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: A$3750m Previous: A$5210m https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-04-07
  • Join @IlyaSpivak 's #webinar at 10:00 PM ET /2:00 AM GMT to prepare for the week ahead in trading $AUDUSD Register here: https://t.co/sZNWPVRHA0 https://t.co/fP9OUELm3l
  • Wall Street Futures Update [delayed]: S&P 500 (+0.36%) Dow Jones (+0.39%) Nasdaq (+0.18%) -BBG
  • RT @IGSquawk: The RBA will announce its decision on the Official Cash Rate at 14:30 AEST. Markets currently pricing in a 53.5% chance of a…
  • The #Euro has dropped through support guiding it higher from late-March lows, suggesting that the end of a corrective rebound has given way to downtrend resumption. Get your $EURUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/gpKowYNmGi https://t.co/WtFZCdOqIn
  • Gold Prices May Fall on FOMC Minutes, Recession & Credit Risks - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/04/04/Gold-Prices-May-Fall-on-FOMC-Minutes-Recession-Credit-Risks.html
  • (Asia AM) The US #Dollar and Japanese #Yen fell as #coronavirus cases seemed to stabilize in the US and Europe. The #DowJones and #SP500 soared. Local policymakers also hinted at more stimulus $USDJPY - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/04/06/US-Dollar-Japanese-Yen-Sink-as-Dow-Jones-Soars-on-Virus-Easing-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/sGqWNz7v7M
FX Signals 'Risk On' as AUD/JPY Leads Ahead of NFPs - Will They Matter?

FX Signals 'Risk On' as AUD/JPY Leads Ahead of NFPs - Will They Matter?

2013-10-22 11:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- At trend NFP growth is expected in September, between +160-184K. The Unemployment Rate should remain at 7.3%, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

- A strong print may offer short-term opportunity for US Dollar; risks weighted lower; a miss may be a final blow for the US Dollar in October.

- Event risk lingers after September NFPs - especially in Asia.

To receive this report in your inbox every morning, sign up for Christopher’s distribution list.

INTRADAY PERFORMANCE UPDATE: 10:50 GMT

MAJORS

AUD

CAD

CHF

EUR

GBP

JPY

NZD

(vs USD)

+0.17%

+0.10%

-0.14%

-0.04%

-0.09%

-0.17%

+0.10%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.02% (-0.82% prior 5-days)

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

Hesitation in FX markets continues to persist as traders await the highly unusual Tuesday NFP release, thanks to the US government shutdown. The US Dollar’s losses have eased the past two days ahead of this momentous event risk, although price action today leading up to the September US labor data suggests that higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets may rally, irrespective of the data results.

Indeed, one of the reasons the NFP report being released today is unusual is that a different psychology is in place without the weekend over our shoulders. I’m suggesting that traders treat the typical Friday report dramatically just because of the day it falls on; the last trading session of the week means traders need to close books and square positions for Monday’s Asia open.

Instead, with three-plus trading days to digest the data, it is possible that the September NFP print is treated with less urgency in this regard – there is plenty of time to react and monitor risk as Asian and European traders react as well. Furthermore, because of the US government shutdown – a reason the Federal Reserve itself cited as a reason not to taper QE3 in September – the manifestation of these fears into reality earlier this month probably closed the book of any QE3 taper next week.

AUDJPY5-minute Chart: October 22, 2013 Intraday

FX_Signals_Risk_On_as_AUDJPY_Leads_Ahead_of_NFPs_-_Will_They_Matter_body_x0000_i1027.png, FX Signals 'Risk On' as AUD/JPY Leads Ahead of NFPs - Will They Matter?

Accordingly, with another non-taper being priced into bond markets already, today’s data may be nothing more than a bump in the road on the way to a dovish Fed policy meeting next week. markets are already leaning towards a meager NFP outcome – hence the revival of the carry trade (AUDJPY and NZDJPY were top performers the day of and after the Fed’s non-taper in September).

Read more: Big Week Ahead: US NFPs, Australian and Japanese Inflation, BoE Minutes

ECONOMIC CALENDAR – UPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN SESSION

FX_Signals_Risk_On_as_AUDJPY_Leads_Ahead_of_NFPs_-_Will_They_Matter_body_Picture_1.png, FX Signals 'Risk On' as AUD/JPY Leads Ahead of NFPs - Will They Matter?

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.