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FX Signals 'Risk On' as AUD/JPY Leads Ahead of NFPs - Will They Matter?

FX Signals 'Risk On' as AUD/JPY Leads Ahead of NFPs - Will They Matter?

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- At trend NFP growth is expected in September, between +160-184K. The Unemployment Rate should remain at 7.3%, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

- A strong print may offer short-term opportunity for US Dollar; risks weighted lower; a miss may be a final blow for the US Dollar in October.

- Event risk lingers after September NFPs - especially in Asia.

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(vs USD)








Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.02% (-0.82% prior 5-days)


Hesitation in FX markets continues to persist as traders await the highly unusual Tuesday NFP release, thanks to the US government shutdown. The US Dollar’s losses have eased the past two days ahead of this momentous event risk, although price action today leading up to the September US labor data suggests that higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets may rally, irrespective of the data results.

Indeed, one of the reasons the NFP report being released today is unusual is that a different psychology is in place without the weekend over our shoulders. I’m suggesting that traders treat the typical Friday report dramatically just because of the day it falls on; the last trading session of the week means traders need to close books and square positions for Monday’s Asia open.

Instead, with three-plus trading days to digest the data, it is possible that the September NFP print is treated with less urgency in this regard – there is plenty of time to react and monitor risk as Asian and European traders react as well. Furthermore, because of the US government shutdown – a reason the Federal Reserve itself cited as a reason not to taper QE3 in September – the manifestation of these fears into reality earlier this month probably closed the book of any QE3 taper next week.

AUDJPY5-minute Chart: October 22, 2013 Intraday

FX_Signals_Risk_On_as_AUDJPY_Leads_Ahead_of_NFPs_-_Will_They_Matter_body_x0000_i1027.png, FX Signals 'Risk On' as AUD/JPY Leads Ahead of NFPs - Will They Matter?

Accordingly, with another non-taper being priced into bond markets already, today’s data may be nothing more than a bump in the road on the way to a dovish Fed policy meeting next week. markets are already leaning towards a meager NFP outcome – hence the revival of the carry trade (AUDJPY and NZDJPY were top performers the day of and after the Fed’s non-taper in September).

Read more: Big Week Ahead: US NFPs, Australian and Japanese Inflation, BoE Minutes


FX_Signals_Risk_On_as_AUDJPY_Leads_Ahead_of_NFPs_-_Will_They_Matter_body_Picture_1.png, FX Signals 'Risk On' as AUD/JPY Leads Ahead of NFPs - Will They Matter?

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.