News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Higher global natural gas prices could hint to a near-term increase in US exports - Moody's via BBG $NG $NG_F
  • WTO crude is on pace to put in its highest session close in three years. If it clears 76, it will be a far bigger technical event. $CL_F weekly chart below
  • Fed's Williams: - It is reasonable for the taper to be completed by mid-2022 - I recognize that inflation is currently elevated
  • Both USD/CHF and USD/SEK rates appear poised for most upside in the near-term, while surging energy prices may be offering a different route for USD/NOK. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Fed's Williams: - Optimistic that the economy will allow an "imminent" taper - Elevated levels of uncertainty make forecasting difficult
  • Gold Price Outlook: #Gold Drops into Pivotal Support- $XAUUSD Levels -
  • Fitch Ratings: - We do not expect the advent of a new gov't in Germany to produce a significant change in near-term economic prospects - Expect sound fiscal policies following German elections, with a focus on sustainability of public debt
  • The USD is trading in an ascending triangle formation, marked by horizontal resistance around the 2021 highs to go along with bullish trendline support. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Fed's Brainard: - It is too soon to say the virus has permanently altered the labor market - It is critical to ensure that bank stress tests are powerful and do not deteriorate over time
  • Fed's Brainard: - We don't know when the pricing consequences of the pandemic will subside - Congress must step up and handle the debt ceiling crisis
Dollar Inches Back After Post-Philly Fed Beatdown - What Happened?

Dollar Inches Back After Post-Philly Fed Beatdown - What Happened?

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist










(vs USD)








Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): 0.00% (+0.12%prior 5-days)


The US Dollar wiped out the week’s gains over the course of a few hours yesterday after a batch of mixed yet important data. I believe that the aggregate impact of the improved weekly Initial Jobless Claims figure, the solid July US Consumer Price Index, and the the weak Philadelphia Fed Index created a nightmare scenario for investors in a thin market yesterday.

With the Fed’s stated goal for the QE3 circuit breakers either the Unemployment Rate falling to 6.5% or yearly inflation holding +2.5%, any incremental efforts towards these goals has tended to have a more dramatic impact on QE3 “taper trade” components – US Treasuries, US stocks, the US Dollar, and precious metals.

So with the weekly jobs data and the monthly inflation reading clearly pro-taper, it is the Philly Fed Index’s fault for the sharp selloff in US equity markets and the US Dollar. The Philly Fed Index is widely considered to be a top leading indicator for growth in the US, with Goldman Sachs recently anointing it (next to the weekly Initial Jobless Claims) as the best proxy for growth.

Thus: yesterday’s data said that the Fed is going to taper in a weak growth environment. This is the worst case scenario for investors: the economy isn’t strong enough to withstand a drawdown in stimulative efforts; yet the Fed is going to do so anyway. This would also explain the flock to safety yesterday – the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc, and Gold were all top performers against the US Dollar.

USDJPY 5-min Chart: Friday, August 16, 2013 Intraday

Dollar_Inches_Back_After_Post-Philly_Fed_Beatdown__What_Happened_body_Picture_1.png, Dollar Inches Back After Post-Philly Fed Beatdown - What Happened?

If the sentiment surrounding the US Dollar is going to be revived this week, overnight price action has already been constructive, though the upcoming data today will truly be necessary. Of note, July US housing data is expected to rebound, after the June figures showed that the uptick in interest rates in the prior two months had reduced the appeal of buying a home.

Read more: Point, Taper: Improved July Retail Sales Report Lifts US Dollar as Yields Jump


Dollar_Inches_Back_After_Post-Philly_Fed_Beatdown__What_Happened_body_x0000_i1028.png, Dollar Inches Back After Post-Philly Fed Beatdown - What Happened?

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.