News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • ECB's Makhlouf says fears of excessive inflation are exaggerated $EUR
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/7U3ZJR0kDB
  • Angola to cut November oil exports to lowest since at least 2008 - Angola exported 1.1mbpd of crude oil in September, according to Refinitiv
  • ECB's Kazaks - The 2% price target will not be met in the medium term - Inflation outlook likely to be revised higher
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/fs5IRP7MJy
  • ECB's De Cos says conclusion of FT report is incompatible with ECB guidance $EUR
  • 💶 Inflation Rate YoY Final (AUG) Actual: 3% Expected: 3% Previous: 2.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-17
  • 💶 Inflation Rate MoM Final (AUG) Actual: 0.4% Expected: 0.4% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-17
  • 💶 Core Inflation Rate YoY Final (AUG) Actual: 1.6% Expected: 1.6% Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-17
  • Heads Up:💶 Inflation Rate YoY Final (AUG) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 3% Previous: 2.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-17
Strong July NFPs Could See USD/JPY Break ¥100.00 on way to ¥102.36

Strong July NFPs Could See USD/JPY Break ¥100.00 on way to ¥102.36

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The US Dollar has a big day lined up for it, should a few key data break its way around the start of New York trading. With 12 events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar designated as “medium” or “high” importance, the excessive event risk promises an exciting end to what has been a disappointing week.

Expectations for big moves out of the majors were high coming into this week, given the supersaturated calendar. But after disappointments out of China (doomsdayers were looking for a contraction in PMI Manufacturing, but it never materialized), Europe (the Bank of England didn’t detail its forward guidance while the European Central Bank was decisively neutral), and even the United States (the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting barely amounted to a blip on the radar), there may be a great deal of pent-up tension among traders headed into Friday’s US jobs report for July.

Data out of the United States has been strong, and weekly jobs figures have trended in the direction of sustained growth above +185K, the current consensus forecast for July. Although earnings data has been weak outside of the financial sector, companies likely still feel positive about the labor picture considering that consumption trends remain bolstered as US stocks tick to fresh all-time highs.

While a print above +200K is very possible, the Unemployment Rate should be eyed to see if it dips below 7.5%; only a drop in the Unemployment Rate coinciding with a steady or improved Participation Rate will be strongly US Dollar-positive.

Read more: Join Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez for US NFPs at 08:30 EDT/12:30 GMT

Taking a look at European credit, peripheral bonds remain supported after the ECB’s promise to keep rates low for “an extended period of time.” The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.499% (-2.1-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.847% (-0.5-bps). On the contrary, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.363% (+0.7-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 4.614% (+1.1-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 09:40 GMT

GBP: +0.27%

EUR: +0.09%

CHF: -0.01%

JPY:-0.12%

NZD:-0.37%

CAD: -0.39%

AUD:-0.46%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.10% (+1.68%prior 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR – UPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN SESSION

Strong_July_NFPs_Could_See_USDJPY_Break_100.00_on_way_to_102.36_body_Picture_1.png, Strong July NFPs Could See USD/JPY Break ¥100.00 on way to ¥102.36

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – CHART OF THE DAY

Strong_July_NFPs_Could_See_USDJPY_Break_100.00_on_way_to_102.36_body_x0000_i1028.png, Strong July NFPs Could See USD/JPY Break ¥100.00 on way to ¥102.36

USDJPY – Potential for a Bull Flag dating back to early-July is gathering pace as the pair tests the topside range of the governing descending channel. Accordingly, a catalyst (NFPs) is necessary to see the recent downside congestion broken. Fortunately, we have that today; so a reaction, either bullish or bearish, should be expected against resistance at ¥100.00 surrounding the data release.

The 61.8% Fibonacci extension off of the June 13 low to July 8 high, with the extension drawn to the July 31 low, comes in at 102.36, an area where resistance was found as the pair tried and failed to retake the yearly high of 103.73. As such, should NFPs beat current estimates (+185K, Unemployment Rate to 7.5% from 7.6%), a break of 100.00 should begin a larger up move to 102.36, 103.73, and 105.32 (100% extension).

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES