We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇿🇦 ABSA Manufacturing PMI Actual: 50.2 Previous: 46.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • Repaso a los eventos más importantes de la semana, enfoque en #Lagarde y el #BCE #trading https://t.co/tlKfrNq9xW https://t.co/TgfLmXwvVu
  • Repaso a los eventos más importantes de la semana, enfoque en #Lagarde y el #BCE #trading https://t.co/tlKfrNq9xW
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 ABSA Manufacturing PMI due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 46.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • OPEC and Russia is said to be moving closer to an agreement on extension of oil production cuts, looking at 1-2 months - RTRS sources
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final Actual: 40.7 Expected: 40.7 Previous: 32.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • Sharp risk-off reversal after #China is reported to halt some US agriculture imports amid #HongKong tensions & #TradeWar escalation. #AUD, #NZD and #SP500 futures down. #USD and #JPY up. https://t.co/2uwoEalx62
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 40.7 Previous: 32.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • China is said to halt some US soy imports as tensions rise
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSlWDSh, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEt7a6 https://t.co/VVnzXqhl9r
Pound Boosted by PMI Ahead of BoE; Euro Struggles Before ECB

Pound Boosted by PMI Ahead of BoE; Euro Struggles Before ECB

2013-08-01 10:25:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

Mixed data overnight has thrown the majors for a loop, with recent underperformers the Australian Dollar and the British Pound as top performers by mid-morning in Europe, while the recently strong Euro and Japanese Yen are the worst performers. As always, the start of a new month brings about the ever-important PMI surveys. Here’s where they fell to provoke a shuffle among recent best/worst performers in FX:

- Australian PMI Manufacturing (JUL): 42.0 from 49.6

- Chinese PMI Manufacturing (JUL): 50.3 versus 49.8 expected, from 50.1

- Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JUL F): 50.3 versus 50.1 expected unch

- UK PMI Manufacturing (JUL): 54.6 versus 52.8 expected, from 52.9

While the Australian and Chinese data have produced only a modest move higher by the Australian Dollar, focus today is centered around the British Pound and the Euro ahead of the Bank of England and European Central Bank policy meetings today, respectively. Both currencies were hampered by the introduction of “forward guidance” at the July meetings, and today could see similar results, depending on what point of view each central bank takes.

Overall, for the both the BoE and the ECB, it boils down to this: will the focus be on the upswing in recent growth prospects (bullish for the EUR and GBP); or will it be on ensuring interest rates stay lower for an extended period of time (bearish for the EUR and GBP).

Read more: Join Currency Analyst Christopher Vecchio to discuss the BoE at 06:45 EDT/10:45 GMT

Taking a look at European credit, peripheral yields continue to edge lower ahead of the ECB – a sign of dovish expectations. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.523% (-2.1-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.858% (-2.0-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.369% (-3.2-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.618% (-2.1-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 09:30 GMT

GBP: +0.03%

AUD: -0.03%

CAD: -0.08%

NZD: -0.39%

CHF: -0.40%

EUR: -0.41%

JPY: -0.80%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.08% (+0.81% prior 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR – UPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN SESSION

Pound_Boosted_by_PMI_Ahead_of_BoE_Euro_Struggles_Before_ECB_body_Picture_1.png, Pound Boosted by PMI Ahead of BoE; Euro Struggles Before ECB

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – CHART OF THE DAY

Pound_Boosted_by_PMI_Ahead_of_BoE_Euro_Struggles_Before_ECB_body_x0000_i1028.png, Pound Boosted by PMI Ahead of BoE; Euro Struggles Before ECB

GBPUSDMy focus remains on the GBPUSD with the BoE policy meeting today. The key support noted yesterday – “that guided the pair off of the March lows, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly high/low move…at $1.5150/75” – has held and now back-to-back daily Hammers might potentially evolve.

However, I find that risk remains skewed to the downside, as the Fed couldn’t knock back the US Dollar; the BoE should strike a dovish tune; and US NFPs on Friday look to be strong after the strong private sector jobs report yesterday.

I thus maintain: “A break below eyes a move to 1.5000 as former daily RSI trend support comes under pressure. Overall, the big picture calls for a move lower into 1.4225/40, the 100% extension off of the yearly high to the March low, extension drawn to the June high; the 61.8% extension at 1.4816 held as support on July 9 (low was 1.4815).”

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.