News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇬🇧 Public Sector Net Borrowing (AUG) Actual: £-35.2B Expected: £-35.1B Previous: £-15.44B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/oqbtFfeo4K
  • 🇬🇧 Public Sector Net Borrowing (AUG) Actual: £-35.92B Expected: £-35.1B Previous: £-15.44B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • The US Dollar, British Pound, and Euro will all be closely watching key geopolitical developments in North America (Powell testimony), the UK (Brexit talks) and Europe (EU summit). Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/q4AJW6PTCu https://t.co/w6ETarBuNl
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Public Sector Net Borrowing (AUG) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: £-35.1B Previous: £-25.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • $EURUSD break below the neckline of a 2-month Head and Shoulders pattern suggests that a test of the 200-MA could be on the cards. However, with support holding at the 38.2% Fib and the RSI swerving away from oversold territory, could this prove to be a mere false-break? $EUR https://t.co/ZIiVc4gAyP
  • Following recent price action and developing technical patterns, $USDINR may rise while the #nifty50 could be at risk to further losses. Check out my full technical report here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/09/25/Indian-Rupee-Nifty-50-Technical-View-USDINR-May-Rise-as-Index-Falls.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/faEdOS8aMA
  • S&P 500 index vs. Fed balance sheet (2015-2020) https://t.co/6iFs2y2L68
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.01%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 67.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/H5Xd8swRpB
  • Gold and silver are at risk of extending their slide from monthly highs as the lack of additional fiscal stimulus and rising geopolitical tensions underpin USD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/sYF5pV9zrE https://t.co/7ISKJ2r1Ea
British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

2013-07-17 11:12:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

After yesterday’s trade which saw the US Dollar slight across the board, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is struggling to rebound off of its lowest level since June 26, as nervous market participants await Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony this morning in Washington DC. Notably, among the majors, the British Pound has arrived as top performer, with the GBPUSD surging above $1.5200 earlier, as the Bank of England released the first meeting Minutes under newly-minted Governor Mark Carney.

As opposed to the July 4 policy meeting that produced a massive Sterling selloff, the reaction to the Minutes’ release today stands in dramatically contrasting position. Indeed, whereas the inclusion of a policy statement and ensuing shift to include forward guidance as part of its monetary policy produced dovish speculation, the Minutes today showed that policymakers have unified behind Governor Carney, with 9-0 votes on both the Asset Purchase Target (currently £375B) and the main interest rate (0.50% since March 2009).

Accordingly, with the BoE in wait-and-see mode – policymakers suggested that policy remains “appropriate” as hopes for economic recovery later in 2013 take hold – the British Pound has enjoyed a shot in the arm of relief. Depending on what ‘hat’ the Fed chairman wears to his testimony today – the one from May 22 and June 19, or the one from July 10 – the GBPUSD could see its gains diminished or amplified.

Read more: Chinese GDP Sets Table for Improved Risk amid CPI Data from EZ, UK, US

Taking a look at European credit, government debt has eroded only slightly after the relatively less dovish BoE, and ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony; overall, peripheral credit suffered after the May 22 and June 19 Bernanke sightings. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 1.701% (+1.8-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 1.993% (+3.8-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.485% (+2.5-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 4.702% (+3.0-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:35 GMT

GBP: +0.32%

CHF: +0.01%

EUR: -0.11%

CAD:-0.22%

NZD:-0.39%

AUD:-0.46%

JPY:-0.57%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.67% (+0.06%prior 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

British_Pound_Boosted_by_BoE_Unity_USD_Inching_Higher_Pre-Bernanke_body_Picture_1.png, British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK

British_Pound_Boosted_by_BoE_Unity_USD_Inching_Higher_Pre-Bernanke_body_x0000_i1028.png, British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

EURUSD: Yesterday I said that “with back-to-back Hammers on the daily chart amid price recovering the 50% retracement of the July low/high, it appears that a retest of the critical 1.3175/245 zone may be necessary before another dip.” This zone has been approached but not yet broken, indicating that that “short-term price action is thus biased lower unless $1.3200/10 is breached.Overall, a [weekly] close below 1.2800 tentatively triggers the broader H&S pattern, whose measured move points to a return to the June 2010 lows near 1.1875. A break of 1.3175/245 puts 1.3300 and 1.3400/20 in focus.

British_Pound_Boosted_by_BoE_Unity_USD_Inching_Higher_Pre-Bernanke_body_x0000_i1029.png, British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

USDJPY: No change as prices have ranged the past five days: “The rejection of the 76.4% Fib retracement at ¥101.35/40 (May high to June low) is only a near-term setback, as the break off of the late-May to mid-June correction in the pair completed the last week of June. …longs preferred into early next week. Indeed, the 50% retracement of the June low to July high at 98.75 held as support and the pair has already bounced higher; a run at 102.00 shouldn’t be ruled out this week. A daily close below 98.75 negates this bias; a move to 97.00 would be anticipated on a reversal lower.”

British_Pound_Boosted_by_BoE_Unity_USD_Inching_Higher_Pre-Bernanke_body_x0000_i1030.png, British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

GBPUSD: While the ‘big picture’ move towards $1.4225/40 is underway, the first Fibonacci extension objective at 1.4850/53 was reached and has produced a rebound. Resistance found at 1.5170/80 (21-EMA, 23.6% Fib January high to July low) broke earlier, biasing price higher into 1.5275/300 (July highs, 55-EMA). A rebound could see the pair back up towards 1.5390/400 (38.2% Fib), which has proven to serve as both support and resistance since April.

British_Pound_Boosted_by_BoE_Unity_USD_Inching_Higher_Pre-Bernanke_body_x0000_i1031.png, British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

AUDUSD: No change: “Despite chopping around and through said level, the AUDUSD has more or less held the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement off the 2008 low to the 2011 high at $0.9141. While fundamentally I am long-term bearish, it is worth noting that the most readily available data shows COT positioning remains extremely short Aussie...A Bullish Broadening Wedge may be forming at the lows as a base; 0.9750/75 would be the target on a close above 0.9415.”

British_Pound_Boosted_by_BoE_Unity_USD_Inching_Higher_Pre-Bernanke_body_x0000_i1032.png, British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

S&P 500: No change: “Now price finds itself on its way towards mid-June swing highs and the 76.4% Fib retracement (May high June low) at 1655/60. Gains have accelerated, with the S&P 500 achieving the 88.6% Fib retracement at 1672/75 overnight; a test of the yearly and all-time high at 1687.4 shouldn’t be discounted yet.1640 is key support for bulls.”

British_Pound_Boosted_by_BoE_Unity_USD_Inching_Higher_Pre-Bernanke_body_x0000_i1033.png, British Pound Boosted by BoE Unity; USD Inching Higher Pre-Bernanke

GOLD: No change “Gold has fallen into the 10/20 RSI support region, where price has held on numerous probes lower ultimately producing a short-term rally. More recently, daily RSI has only dipped into this region in mid-February and mid-April…Basing just below $1200/oz shouldn’t be dismissed, as at 1189.91 lies the 100% extension of March high/April low/April high move, as well as the 61.8% extension of the October high (post-QE3 announcement)/April low/April high move at 1192.” It should be noted that the rally off of Friday’s low has produced a maximum of +10.02% so far, eclipsing the rebound seen from late-May to early-June, when Gold rebounded by +6.36%.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES