News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Have not made decision on removing bank restrictions -Some housing tightness is passing phenomenon -Large increases in home prices unlikely to be sustained -Corporate defaults have been fewer than expected -We haven't seen as much scarring as we feared
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Emergency lending facilities were very helpful to economy -Haven't talked with US Treasury about emergency tools
  • Federal Reserve holds its policy interest rate and pace of asset purchases steady as expected. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @RichardSnowFX here:
  • Fed Chair Powell: -World has been struggling with disinflationary forces for a while -US inflation dynamics won't change much over near term -More concerned about recovery than pickup in inflation -Inflation resembling past decades seems unlikely
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Talk of tapering asset purchases is premature -Just too early to be talking about dates on tapering bond buying plans -Tapering would be gradual when we do it -Whole focus on exit is premature $SPX $NDX $DJI $USD $DXY $XAUUSD $TNX
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Pandemic, new virus strains still provide considerable downside risks -Will take quite a while to get to herd immunity -Vaccine rollout likely to be a struggle -Nothing more important to economy now than vaccinations
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Coming months' rise in inflation will be transient -We will be patient and not react when we see modest bumps in inflation -Very unlikely that we'll see troubling inflation -Not going to adopt a formula on inflation
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Financial vulnerabilities are 'moderate' right now overall -Asset prices have recently been driven by vaccines, fiscal steps -Link between interest rates and asset prices not so strong
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Fiscal response to economic downturn has been strong and sustained -We are a long way away from 'returning to normal' with about 9 million Americans still unemployed -The real unemployment rate is closer to 10% -Very appropriate to be highly accommodative
  • Fed Chair Powell: -Declines to comment when asked about recent $GME stock price activity, notes financial conditions are monitored very broadly -Carefully examining aspects of non-bank sector #Stocks #StockMarket #FOMC
Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist


Yesterday, it was the British Pound’s turn to take a nose dive, falling apart after the dovish Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. Today, feeling left out in the race to the bottom, the Euro decided to join the ‘party,’ sliding by nearly a full percentage point against the US Dollar and to under 1.3350 – well-off its February 1 high of 1.3710 – as a bevy of important Euro-zone growth data disappointed across the board.

Not one single aspect of any 4Q’12 GDP data this morning – not on a quarterly or yearly basis, not from France, Italy, Germany, or the broader Euro-zone itself – beat consensus expectations provided by Bloomberg News. And yet what do European officials have to say? “We are aware the economic activity remains weak,” but, the data “are broadly in line with our expectations,” said Simon O’Connor, a spokesman for the European Union Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn. Maybe this is the confirmation that the EUR/USD top is in place, something I conjectured on February 4.

This political complacency towards the weak growth situation across the continent is troublesome, because it not only confirms that the attitude of ‘just doing enough to satiate markets’ is persisting, but it means that the impetus to save the Euro-zone remains in the European Central Bank’s hands. While this is a burden that they undertook by promising to do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro, it now means that calls for an interest rate cut are likely to increase in the coming week. Until there is further policy clarification from President Mario Draghi, there will be an inherent underlying dovish push against the Euro in this regard. This should at least counterbalance any upside afforded by the LTRO repayments coming in. Focus is now on the Italian elections on February 24 and 25, which offers further downside in the Euro should Silvio Berlusconi win (polls currently have him trailing by -3.7%, within the +/-4% error margin).

Taking a look at European credit, peripheral yields have compressed despite the weak data, though the Euro has seemingly disconnected. The Italian 2-year note yield has fallen to 1.543% (-2.3-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has decreased to 2.471% (-1.3-bps). Likewise, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.383% (-0.4-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 5.186% (+0.6-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.


NZD: +0.27%

JPY: +0.16%

CAD: -0.03%





Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.17% (+0.28 % past 5-days)


Euro_Plummets_as_Growth_Across_Continent_Contracts_to_Crisis_Levels_body_Picture_7.png, Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators.


Euro_Plummets_as_Growth_Across_Continent_Contracts_to_Crisis_Levels_body_Picture_6.png, Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

EURUSD: Maintaining the same bias as the move to 1.3280/300 has yet to be completed: “Price has steadied below 1.3400, entering the Bull Flag range set in mid-January, from 1.3280 to 1.3390. On lower-term timeframes, a Bear Flag may have formed, with the measured move pointing to 1.3280/300. A break lower can’t be ruled out, but as long as the ascending trendline off of the mid-December and early-January lows holds at 1.3215/35, any setbacks are seen as near-term corrections.”

Euro_Plummets_as_Growth_Across_Continent_Contracts_to_Crisis_Levels_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

USDJPY: No change: “Further bullish price action as US Treasury yields strengthen and speculation over BoJ policy arises again.” Resistance comes in at 93.40/45 (monthly R1), 93.85 (weekly R1) and 94.00/10. Support comes in at 92.90/95 (weekly pivot), and 91.75/95 (weekly S1).

Euro_Plummets_as_Growth_Across_Continent_Contracts_to_Crisis_Levels_body_Picture_4.png, Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

GBPUSD: The pair is reaching overextended levels to the downside on the 4H timeframe, as the GBPUSD slid to under 1.5500 today for the first time since August. With the pair now having fallen by over -800-pips since the first trading day of the year, it could be time to take profit.A rally back into 1.5750/800 shouldn’t be ruled out before a move towards 1.5265/70, the June low. Resistance comes in at 1.5570/80 (monthly S1) and 1.5675. Support is 1.5480/500 and 1.5380.

Euro_Plummets_as_Growth_Across_Continent_Contracts_to_Crisis_Levels_body_Picture_3.png, Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

AUDUSD:Tuesday I said: “The bounce from the 1.0265/90 area may have completed, with the rally halted at the 200-DMA at 1.0305/10. The pair is sitting at the 100% extension at 1.0265 now, and a break implies a deeper setback towards 1.0135/75, early-September and –October swing lows, as well as the 161.8% extension.” Although there was an overshoot into 1.0360, former support, failure has occurred, signaling further downside is possible. Price has struggled further to overcome this level. I’m still looking for a move into 1.0135/75.

Euro_Plummets_as_Growth_Across_Continent_Contracts_to_Crisis_Levels_body_Picture_2.png, Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

S&P 500: Tuesday I said: “as indicated on the charts the past weeks, noting “nearing the top 1505/1512” – the top was 1504.6. If this breaks, 1520 is in sight.” Indeed, the irrational exuberance has continued, bringing topline Bearish Rising Wedge resistance in focus at 1520; the December 2007 highs of 1520/24 could be reached on an overshoot. The 100% Fibonacci extension on the fiscal cliff rally and flag comes in at 1530. Bottom line: I’m expecting a significant setback (-10%) in the S&P 500 unless volumes accelerate rapidly, given the disconnect from reality.

Euro_Plummets_as_Growth_Across_Continent_Contracts_to_Crisis_Levels_body_Picture_1.png, Euro Plummets as Growth Across Continent Contracts to Crisis Levels

GOLD: The past few weeks I’ve maintained: "When considering the move off of the September highs, a measured A-B=C-D (as expressed on the Daily) suggests that a bottom could be in place at [1630/40].” A daily close above 1700 points towards 1722/25 and 1755. Support is 1640/45 and 1625/35.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.