We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • El #Ibex35 defiende los 7.600 puntos gracias al estímulo ilimitado del #BCE #trading https://t.co/14JmYVr4Q5
  • EUR/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long EUR/JPY since Jan 14 when EUR/JPY traded near 122.23. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to EUR/JPY strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PIrps86vUZ
  • The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) has its record intraday high. Now is the point where we have the milestone and we start considering conviction. And, that sharp ascending wedge puts a lot of pressure on bullish control https://t.co/VJlAKLD75I
  • Senator McConnell says China will face consequences for its behavior - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.45% Silver: -0.14% Oil - US Crude: -1.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fUy5sGQh7e
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.31%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.93%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/K2JT5NtBzZ
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.64% Silver: 0.13% Oil - US Crude: -1.76% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ERG8JOGxZf
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.23% Wall Street: -0.31% US 500: -0.36% Germany 30: -0.54% FTSE 100: -0.72% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/JEODi73ZcM
  • Finland's government states that is rejects EC proposal for recovery package as it now stands and demands change $EUR
  • GBP/USD is easing back Thursday after a week of gains as the June 30 deadline for the UK to ask for an extension of its Brexit transition period approaches. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/ymQqurP9Nw https://t.co/pmPrbAgrC6
Euro Firms After Spanish Bond Auctions as RBA Lifts Australian Dollar

Euro Firms After Spanish Bond Auctions as RBA Lifts Australian Dollar

2012-07-17 10:58:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

The Australian Dollar is the top performer on a quiet Tuesday thus far, in which price action has been skewed in favor of high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Minutes from the July meeting proved to be more optimistic than market participants expected, prompting investors to pare back rate hike expectations. In Europe, data continued to trend lower, with the most recent ZEW Surveys showing the weakest readings of German sentiment since the beginning of the year.

However, the most important news of the day has to be the very promising Spanish bond auction at 04:45 EDT / 08:45 GMT. Spain sold 12-month bills at a yield of 3.918%, which is a dramatic improvement over the auction on June 19, when 12-month bills fetched a yield of 5.074%. Similarly, 18-month bills fielded an average yield of 4.242% versus 5.107% at the June 19 auction. Despite these developments, there has not been much improvement in European periphery debt. The Italian 2-year note yield has pulled back slightly to 3.599% (-2.4-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has risen to 4.656% (+15.9-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 6.099% (+1.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has risen to 6.787% (+5.7-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:43 GMT

AUD: +0.39%

CHF: +0.17%

EUR: +0.17%

NZD: +0.06%

GBP:+0.02%

CAD: -0.01%

JPY: -0.18%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.08%(-0.62% past 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Euro_Firms_After_Spanish_Bond_Auctions_as_RBA_Lifts_Australian_Dollar_body_x0000_i1029.png, Euro Firms After Spanish Bond Auctions as RBA Lifts Australian Dollar

There are three key pieces of data left on the docket today. At 08:30 EDT / 12:30 GMT, the USD Consumer Price Index for June is expected to show that price pressures continued to subside in the US. At the same time, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy for the weeks going forward, and we suspect they will issue concern over the rapidly expanding housing market. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak in front of Congress at 10:00 EDT / 14:00 GMT, when he issues his Semi-Annual Monetary Policy report. We do not believe he will announce any new measures or insist that the Fed will do more to help the US economy, instead placing that burden on US fiscal authorities.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Euro_Firms_After_Spanish_Bond_Auctions_as_RBA_Lifts_Australian_Dollar_body_Picture_2.png, Euro Firms After Spanish Bond Auctions as RBA Lifts Australian Dollar

EURUSD: Short-term technical stress has been relieved following Friday’s rally off of the fresh yearly lows set at 1.2161. We remain bearish as the EURUSD has yet to complete its measured move from its May 1 decline, and over the coming six-weeks, we are looking for a sell-off into 1.1695-1.1875. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2285/90 and 1.2360/65. Above that, interest lies 1.2400, and the crucial 1.2440/80 zone (Symmetrical Triangle support). Support comes in at 1.2250/60, the 1.2155/65 zone then 1.2120/25 (Bollinger Band).

Euro_Firms_After_Spanish_Bond_Auctions_as_RBA_Lifts_Australian_Dollar_body_Picture_3.png, Euro Firms After Spanish Bond Auctions as RBA Lifts Australian Dollar

USDJPY: The USDJPY is working on an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern off of the June 1 low, with the neckline coming in at 80.60/70. Only a daily close above this level will signal the commencement of this pattern. With the Head at 77.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. Near-term support comes in at 79.00/05 (200-DMA). Price action to remain range bound as long as advances are capped by 80.60/70.

Euro_Firms_After_Spanish_Bond_Auctions_as_RBA_Lifts_Australian_Dollar_body_Picture_4.png, Euro Firms After Spanish Bond Auctions as RBA Lifts Australian Dollar

GBPUSD: The pair has fought back to its 50-DMA today but has yet to make any sustainable progress above said level at 1.5640/45. With new monthly lows set last week at 1.5390/95, we suspect the trend is lower in the near-term. However, the daily close yesterday above 1.5580 suggests that we could see further upside in the GBPUSD. Near-term support comes in at 1.5460/65 then 1.5390/1.5405 (monthly low, Bollinger Band).

Euro_Firms_After_Spanish_Bond_Auctions_as_RBA_Lifts_Australian_Dollar_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Firms After Spanish Bond Auctions as RBA Lifts Australian Dollar

AUDUSD: The pair has leaked lower thus far on Monday, failing once again at the 100-DMA. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0280/85 and 1.0325/30. A 4-hour close above 1.0325/30 suggests further upside towards 1.0385. Support now comes in at 1.0135/55, 1.0095/1.0105, 1.0080 (former intraday swing highs), and 1.0005/10 (50-DMA).

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.