News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/Q0yRRpMpPX
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/pSeSiNnmHe
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/iVOEuK40rn
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/ltEO5dpKux
  • WTI crude oil is currently trading up against major resistance via the 2019 and 2020 highs within the confines of a channel; something has to give. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/MO9foRjm2y https://t.co/YhBFdvZDEb
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/eVDwmFTaIg
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/8B8hqHahm1
  • The US Dollar finished off an eventful week after CPI and retail sales injected volatility into markets. FOMC is now in the Greenback’s sights as taper talks linger. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/MHi0lfQ93j https://t.co/4XetwYAaNd
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/ZZRLV0Wkea
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed a bearish Gartley pattern, which hints at further downside potential. Negative MACD divergence on the weekly chart suggests that upward momentum may be fading. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/GkMEkVA7YR https://t.co/E1vyCMVt6K
EURUSD Slides Under 1.22 Despite Stable Bond Yields

EURUSD Slides Under 1.22 Despite Stable Bond Yields

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

The Japanese Yen and the US Dollar are the top performing majors to start the week, with high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets paring their gains from Friday in mostly quiet trading to start the week. Euro-zone inflation data for June showed that prices remained stable, perhaps a sign that the over €1 trillion injected since late-December 2011 may finally be circulating back into the system. Regardless, sticky prices mean that the European Central Bank is likely to be more cautious about further easting measures; the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate below 1.00% for the first time ever earlier this month.

Looking around the globe, concerns over China are in full-swing. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite was slammed, dropping nearly 1.75% as it closed at its 2012 low and its weakest reading since March 2009. Meanwhile, European bond and equity markets are stable, which could be setting a base for the Euro to work off of if risk-appetite reemerges in the North American session today. The Italian 2-year note yield has risen to 3.548% (+4.1-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 4.355% (+7.0-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has moved higher to 6.067% (+3.6-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has risen to 6.661% (+8.7-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:37 GMT

JPY: +0.24%

NZD: -0.09%

AUD: -0.09%

CAD: -0.09%

GBP:-0.27%

EUR: -0.49%

CHF: -0.50%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.12%(+0.01% past 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

EURUSD_Slides_Under_1.22_Despite_Stable_Bond_Yields1_body_x0000_i1029.png, EURUSD Slides Under 1.22 Despite Stable Bond Yields

While the bulk of the key US data is due in the middle of the week, the USD Advance Retail Sales report for June released at 08:30 EDT / 12:30 GMT is of significance. As an insight into not only consumption but also consumer confidence, the June sales report is the most significant piece of data due today across the globe. Given the Federal Reserve’s outlook, a weak print could weigh on the US Dollar and bolster risk-appetite as investors raise their bets for another round of quantitative easing.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EURUSD_Slides_Under_1.22_Despite_Stable_Bond_Yields1_body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD Slides Under 1.22 Despite Stable Bond Yields

EURUSD: Short-term technical stress has been relieved following Friday’s rally off of the fresh yearly lows set at 1.2161. We remain bearish as the EURUSD has yet to complete its measured move from its May 1 decline, and over the coming six-weeks, we are looking for a sell-off into 1.1695-1.1875. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2250/60 and 1.2285/90. Above that, interest lies at 1.2360/65, 1.2400, and the crucial 1.2440/80 zone (Symmetrical Triangle support). Support comes in the 1.2155/65 zone then 1.2055/60 (Bollinger Band).

EURUSD_Slides_Under_1.22_Despite_Stable_Bond_Yields1_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD Slides Under 1.22 Despite Stable Bond Yields

USDJPY: The USDJPY is working on an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern off of the June 1 low, with the neckline coming in at 80.60/70. Only a daily close above this level will signal the commencement of this pattern. With the Head at 77.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. Near-term support comes in at 79.00/05 (200-DMA). Price action to remain range bound as long as advances are capped by 80.60/70.

EURUSD_Slides_Under_1.22_Despite_Stable_Bond_Yields1_body_Picture_4.png, EURUSD Slides Under 1.22 Despite Stable Bond Yields

GBPUSD: Friday’s close above the 10-DMA appears to be a fluke, with the pair trading back towards it after being rejected at the 20-DMA both on Friday and today thus far. With new monthly lows set last week at 1.5390/95, we suspect the trend is lower in the near-term. A daily close above 1.5580 reverses this trend and suggests a test of the monthly high at 1.5720/25. Near-term support comes in at 1.5460/65 then 1.5390/1.5405 (monthly low, Bollinger Band).

EURUSD_Slides_Under_1.22_Despite_Stable_Bond_Yields1_body_Picture_5.png, EURUSD Slides Under 1.22 Despite Stable Bond Yields

AUDUSD: The pair has leaked lower thus far on Monday, failing once again at the 100-DMA. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0250/55 and 1.0280/85. Support now comes in at 1.0135/55, 1.0095/1.0105, 1.0080 (former intraday swing highs), and 1.0000/05 (50-DMA).

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES