News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Last week’s march higher in EUR/USD may well extend further after Friday’s Eurozone economic statistics that will likely turn the ECB more hawkish on monetary policy. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Cable is pulling off after a strong run; near-term weakness may be the theme before trying to rally again. Get your weekly GBP technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
  • USD/CAD has bounced off a key support area on Friday and could potentially charge higher in the coming week as risk-aversion over coronavirus fears has started to dominate market moves. Get your weekly CAD technical forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
Euro Short-Term Outlook Much More Bullish Than Some Think

Euro Short-Term Outlook Much More Bullish Than Some Think

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist

Thursday’s resumption of aggressive risk off price action was understandable. After all, what good news has there really been for investors to hang on to. In reality, the rally in risk assets over the past few weeks has been more about the pricing out of maximum downside scenarios than the materialization of real positive developments. Strangely enough, this actually further supports our view that the bout of risk on trade that we had been seeing since early June, could very well continue.

While we acknowledge the state of the global economy is far from rosy, we also have grown increasingly convinced throughout the crisis that a seemingly unlimited amount of government proponomics (commitment to support the economy at all costs through aggressive forms of monetary and fiscal stimulus), just might actually help to get us through the crisis without ever seeing any major downside. Look at the US economy. This was the first economy to enter the global recession, and yet the unwavering commitment by the US government and Fed to pump liquidity into the system seems to be working against all odds. Investor confidence has been well supported as evidenced by the performance in US equities, while economic data has actually been showing signs of improvement.

Relative performance versus the USD Friday (as of 11:00GMT)

NZD +0.19%

GBP +0.09%

CAD +0.05%

AUD +0.04%

CHF +0.03%

EUR +0.02%

JPY -0.14%

Many other countries have taken on a similar approach, and this strategy has spread like wildfire, with a coordinated commitment to support the global economy at all costs. There can be no better affirmation of this fact than the recent G20 meeting which was very explicit on the subject. For now, the real trick will be for European leadership to fall in line and step up to the plate. In our view, Europe has not been as aggressive with this approach as it needs to be, and all that is required is for a formal plan to tackle the crisis head on. Yet, a presence of leadership in the zone has been absent, and the true Achilles heel in the region is the fact that we are not dealing with just one unified country. Nevertheless, we contend that at least in the short-term, this is where the curve ball will be, where markets are shocked in a good way that European leadership was able to really step up at the last minute.

The upcoming EU Summit will be extremely important, and we foresee an outcome which truly surprises the market and instills a renewed sense of confidence in the region. As a contrarian, it is perfectly normal for me to adopt such an optimistic view. Many of you know that I have been quite bearish and downbeat in recent years. But now, as the world speculates on the Euro’s collapse, it makes sense to expect a rally. I feel even more comforted after watching two huge portfolio managers on television yesterday aggressively calling for a more rapid and immediate downside acceleration in the Euro.

Trading markets is one of the most difficult challenges out there, as the market will find a way to exploit every weakness of every trader in some form or another. And with everything and everyone lining up for additional risk off trade, it seems to me that we just might be in for a bit of a surprise.

My view is that we will soon see the unveiling of a very aggressive plan from Eurozone leaders which ultimately is well received by investors and opens the door for an aggressive round of risk-on trade over the coming days. Maybe then, I will return to the path of gloom and look for an opportunity to fade the rally. For me, a move in the Euro towards 1.3000 seems logical, and only then will I be looking to aggressively sell.


Euro_Short-Term_Outlook_Much_More_Bullish_Than_Many_Would_Think_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Short-Term Outlook Much More Bullish Than Some Think


Euro_Short-Term_Outlook_Much_More_Bullish_Than_Many_Would_Think_body_eur.png, Euro Short-Term Outlook Much More Bullish Than Some Think

EUR/USD: While our overall outlook remains grossly bearish, from here we still see room for short-term upside before a fresh lower top is sought out. Despite the latest pullback, the market still looks constructive in the short-term while above 1.2440. A closer look at the weekly chart still shows the pair putting in yet another weekly higher high and higher low. Nevertheless, a break back above 1.2750 will now be required to accelerate gains. Below 1.2440 negates.

Euro_Short-Term_Outlook_Much_More_Bullish_Than_Many_Would_Think_body_usd.png, Euro Short-Term Outlook Much More Bullish Than Some Think

USD/JPY: Some very constructive price action in recent sessions with the market clearing some critical short-term resistance by 79.80 and then breaking back above psychological barriers at 80.00. This now opens the door for a potential medium-term higher low in place by 77.65 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually above the 2012 highs by 84.20.

Euro_Short-Term_Outlook_Much_More_Bullish_Than_Many_Would_Think_body_gbp.png, Euro Short-Term Outlook Much More Bullish Than Some Think

GBP/USD: Despite some intraday pullbacks, the bullish correction since early June remains alive, and we still see room for additional upside beyond 1.5780 and towards 1.6000 over the coming days. Ultimately, any additional declines are expected to be well supported around 1.5500, while only back under 1.5450 would compromise the outlook.

Euro_Short-Term_Outlook_Much_More_Bullish_Than_Many_Would_Think_body_usd_1.png, Euro Short-Term Outlook Much More Bullish Than Some Think

USD/CHF: While we retain a broader bullish outlook for this pair, with the market seen establishing back above parity over the coming weeks, there still seems to be room for additional short-term declines while the market trends lower from the peak in early June. Ultimately, a break back over 0.9660 would be required to end the short-term bearish correction and open the door for broader bullish resumption. Until then, risks remain for a deeper pullback towards the 0.9200-0.9300 area.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, email Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.