We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US dollar continued to sell-off this week and the greenback’s future will be decided by commentary from the White House and not the Federal Reserve over the coming days and weeks. Get your #currencies market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/lpHneO3s2h https://t.co/bZ5klohLNd
  • #Gold prices have continued to push higher as expectations have built for global Central Banks to remain very loose and passive with monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/h5tF3kAZfd https://t.co/VAYy9FGHcQ
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/dQxkG68R0I https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eMd3T8EwDO https://t.co/56oUP6we9U
  • The #DAX has now closed the gap from the beginning of March with the index breaking above 61.8% fib at 11592. Get your DAX market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/wr67nkxc8z https://t.co/CkxPZn1v3t
  • Emerging market currencies haven’t been treated equally by the effects of global contagion, even if most have suffered to some degree. However withdrawal of investment flows could hit them all. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/QzNoNYgMgP https://t.co/9CV6iZt40j
  • My weekend trading video: 'S&P 500 Rises on Trump China Presser, #NFPs and Rate Decisions Ahead' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/05/30/SP-500-Rises-on-Trump-China-Presser-NFPs-and-Rate-Decisions-Ahead.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/ZvoGoibzj1
  • Hopes are high for deeper European economic integration as the continent battles back from the coronavirus slowdowns – but will it hold? What impact can this have on #Euro? Find out from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/b9ZWRd4cTr https://t.co/gngm5tKqjz
Euro Attempting to Recover on Technical Bounce and Solid Data

Euro Attempting to Recover on Technical Bounce and Solid Data

2012-05-15 11:06:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
Share:
  • Risk correlated assets finally finding some support
  • Moves classified as corrective consolidation at this point
  • Solid Eurozone data and positive news out of Greece help to inspire bids
  • Technical studies also warn of additional Euro gains before resumption of downtrend
  • German GDP strong, French and Eurozone weaker
  • German ZEW survey mixed
  • UK trade deficit weighs on pound
  • Portuguese GDP better than expected, but still problematic

Some intense liquidation in currencies, commodities and equities over the past several sessions looks like it might finally be ready for a welcome consolidation as market participants seek to buy back into risk at potentially attractive levels. While our core bias still favors additional risk liquidation into any corrective rallies, there is still a good deal of potential bounce before a resumption of risk off trade. So far on Tuesday, economic data out of the Eurozone has been well received overall, with solid German growth data, better than expected Eurozone GDP and an above consensus current situation to the German ZEW, all helping to prop. Meanwhile, auction results out of the region have been well received and investors have also found comfort with the added gift of a Greek promise to repay the Eur430M bond.

Relative performance versus the USD Tuesday (as of 10:35GMT)

AUD +0.40%

CHF +0.28%

EUR +0.27%

CAD +0.24%

NZD -0.03%

JPY -0.09%

GBP -0.27%

Technically, it is worth noting that EUR/USD are in need of an unwinding from oversold readings on the daily chart, and with the price stalling by a key 78.6% fib retrace off of the yearly low-highs (1.2810), we could be very close to seeing some form of a multi-session corrective bounce. Look for a break back above 1.2910 to confirm. But for the time being, the US Dollar is king, and market participants are likely to continue to look to buy the Greenback across the board on its lure of safety and a prospective narrowing in yield differentials as the US emerges first from the global crisis. Elsewhere, the Pound has been a relative underperformer on Tuesday, with the trade deficit numbers out of the UK weighing on the currency. Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is stacked and the data (see below) could very well influence the direction in the markets for the remainder of the day.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Euro_Testing_Key_Support_in_the_1.2800_Area_Look_for_Corrective_Bounce_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Attempting to Recover on Technical Bounce and Solid Data

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Euro_Testing_Key_Support_in_the_1.2800_Area_Look_for_Corrective_Bounce_body_eur.png, Euro Attempting to Recover on Technical Bounce and Solid Data

EUR/USD: The market has finally cleared some key support by 1.3000 and the break opens the door for deeper setbacks over the coming days towards the 2012 lows from January at 1.2620. However, short-term technical studies will need to unwind from oversold readings before we are to see any extended declines below 1.2800, and we recommend looking to sell into rallies into the 1.3000-1.3100 where a fresh lower top is now sought. Look for a potential bounce by the 78.6% fib retrace off of the yearly low-high move which comes in by 1.2800. Back above 1.2910 confirms onset of corrective rally. But ultimately, only back above 1.3300 would delay.

Euro_Testing_Key_Support_in_the_1.2800_Area_Look_for_Corrective_Bounce_body_usd.png, Euro Attempting to Recover on Technical Bounce and Solid Data

USD/JPY: The latest pullback from the 2012, 84.20 highs is viewed as corrective and it looks as though the market could still see a bit more weakness before considering the possibility for the formation of a medium-term higher low. Overall, this is a market that has undergone a major structural shift in recent months and we now see the pair in the early stages of a longer-term up-trend. Ultimately, only a weekly close back under 78.00 would negate.

Euro_Testing_Key_Support_in_the_1.2800_Area_Look_for_Corrective_Bounce_body_gbp.png, Euro Attempting to Recover on Technical Bounce and Solid Data

GBP/USD: Finally starting to see signs of a medium-term top and potential 2012 high after the market has stalled and retreated from the 1.6300 area. Key support now comes in by 1.6050 and a break and close below this level will confirm bearish bias and accelerate declines towards 1.5800 further down. Ultimately, only a break back above 1.6300 would negate and give reason for reconsideration.

Euro_Testing_Key_Support_in_the_1.2800_Area_Look_for_Corrective_Bounce_body_usd_1.png, Euro Attempting to Recover on Technical Bounce and Solid Data

USD/CHF: Our core constructive outlook remains well intact with the latest setbacks very well supported by psychological barriers at 0.9000. It now appears as though the market could be looking to carve a fresh higher low, and the latest daily close above 0.9335 should accelerate gains towards the 2012 highs by 0.9600 further up. Ultimately, only back under 0.9200 delays and gives reason for pause.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, email jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to jskruger@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.