We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Last week was more of the same, a narrowing range following the UK general election fireworks; GBP/USD has a couple of clear signposts to keep an eye on. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/3pJfj0w2AX https://t.co/Cm6zhnBSGR
  • The $AUD is pressuring four-month trend support against its US counterpart as sellers fight to reassert the dominant, long-term downtrend. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/Bup64Arva9 https://t.co/OLpavqPOVA
  • RT @globaltimesnews: A total of 1,052 cases of #coronavirus have been reported as of Jan 25 in #Hubei Province, with 129 in critical condit…
  • RT @FactSet: $SPX is reporting revenue growth of 2.9% for Q4, led by the Health Care (11%), Utilities (9%), and Communication Services (9%)…
  • The AUD has been hit by the risk-appetite pullback occasioned by the spread of Wuhan-strain coronavirus. This week may see domestic focus return, if headlines allow, with key inflation data due. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/UIpwno0pSq https://t.co/kib4d1mA0q
  • RT @anilvohra69: USD inverted (red) is correlated to Excess Reserves (blue) and Reserve Balances (green). 1/2 https://t.co/bbO1pPWY4F
  • RT @FactSet: $SPX is reporting a decline in earnings of -1.9% for Q4, led by the Energy (-42%), Consumer Discretionary (-14%), and Material…
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/6iMyDFqnqe
  • Knowing how to accurately value a #stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/2mjzvYvgSn
  • Previewing the Texas Rangers new home! https://t.co/WITZGSQPlc
Central Bank Rate Decisions Take Back Seat to Greek PSI Optimism

Central Bank Rate Decisions Take Back Seat to Greek PSI Optimism

2012-03-08 13:02:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
Share:
  • Central banks leave rates on hold as expected
  • Optimism on Greek PSI front inspires rally
  • Fed rate decision coming into focus
  • All eyes on Friday’s US NFPs
  • Aussie employment data softer than expected

Thursday’s central bank event risk has done very little to influence the markets, with participants more focused on talk of a favorable outcome from the Greek PSI. Really, this comes as no surprise with all three central banks already having been widely expected to leave policy on hold. However, there was a good deal of uncertainty over the Greek PSI outcome, and talk that there would be an eventual participation rate of 90% was enough to inject a very solid bid tone in the market. The Euro surged through some key short-term resistance by 1.3225, while all currencies showed gains against the buck, with the exception of the Yen. Official results from the PSI will not come until 6:00GMT Friday. Also seen propping sentiment were reports out of China that the government was predicting a much brighter 2012 growth forecast of 8.8%. Still, we would recommend proceeding with caution and think that the upbeat tone of the markets right now could turn around rather quickly. Markets have been in a roller coaster of choppy trade for the past several weeks and just when it looks as though things might get going one way, they quickly reverse course.

Relative performance versus the USD Thursday (as of 13:00GMT)

  1. NZD +1.11%
  2. CHF +0.77%
  3. EUR +0.75%
  4. AUD +0.59%
  5. GBP +0.36%
  6. CAD +0.20%
  7. JPY -0.72%

Overall, our technical studies are warning of additional risk off sentiment in the markets going forward, with global equities starting to show signs of rolling over and higher yielding currencies also confirming a bit. At this point it is still too early to make any aggressive calls, and we will wait to see how the markets respond today for added clarity. Things will continue to be interesting into Friday, with the monthly US NFPs due out and also likely to generate a good deal of volatility. Signs of improvement in the US economy have been forcing the Fed to perhaps be thinking a little less dovish than many had hoped, and a strong number tomorrow could actually force additional risk off trade on fear that the Fed will look to reverse policy sooner than later.

Elsewhere, Australian employment data came out a good deal weaker than expected, which already follows a more dovish RBA and softer GDP this week. The Australian Dollar has still managed to hold up surprisingly well in the face of all this, and much of the bid tone continues to be driven off yield differentials and external factors. Still, we can not ignore the underlying fundamentals on the local front and continue to project relative underperformance in the currency going forward. Perhaps a more significant pullback in highly correlated global equities markets or more bad news out of China will be the catalyst to trigger the anticipated weakness in the commodity currency.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

sLICES_body_Picture_5.png, Central Bank Rate Decisions Take Back Seat to Greek PSI Optimism

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, email jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to jskruger@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.