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Currencies Looking to Extend Gains in North American Trade

Currencies Looking to Extend Gains in North American Trade

2011-02-15 11:17:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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ABRIDGED VERSION

HIGHLIGHTS

  • AUSSIE RBA MINUTES CONFIRM LESS HAWKISH TONE; CENTRAL BANK ON HOLD FOR NOW
  • CHINA CPI DATA COMES IN SOFTER; HELPS TO BOLSTER RISK APPETITE; BUT PPI HOTTER
  • BANK OF JAPAN UNCHANGED BUT RAISES ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
  • UK CPI SLIGHTLY SOFTER; DCLG HOUSE PRICES FIRMER; RETAIL PRICE INDEX HIGHER
  • BOE KING DRAFTS 5TH INFLATION OVERSHOOT LETTER TO CHANCELLOR OSBORNE
  • EUROZONE ZEW BETTER; GERMAN ZEW MIXED; EZ GDP AND TRADE BALANCE DISSAPOINT
  • CURRENCIES GENERALLY BID AGAINST GREENBACK AHEAD OF NA OPEN
  • US EQUITY FUTURES TRACKING MARGINALLY HIGHER; COMMODITIES BETTER BID

Relative Performance Versus USD Tuesday (As of 11:00GMT)

  1. CAD +0.36%
  2. EUR+0.29%
  3. GBP +0.17%
  4. CHF +0.05%
  5. AUD +0.02%
  6. NZD -0.25%
  7. JPY -0.26%

LOOKING AHEAD

Currencies_Looking_to_Extend_Gains_in_NA_body_Picture_5.png, Currencies Looking to Extend Gains in North American Trade

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Currencies_Looking_to_Extend_Gains_in_NA_body_eur.png, Currencies Looking to Extend Gains in North American Trade

EUR/USD:The latest rallies have stalled out well ahead of 1.3860 with the market finding some resistance by an ideal right shoulder top in the mid-1.3700’s ahead of the latest sharp setbacks. From here, the risks are tilted to the downside, with Friday’s break and close back below 1.3570 triggering the H&S topping formation and opening the door for a fresh downside extension towards the 1.3200 area over the coming days. Any rallies should continue to be well capped ahead of 1.3700 with only a break back above the figure to give reason for concern.

Currencies_Looking_to_Extend_Gains_in_NA_body_jpy2.png, Currencies Looking to Extend Gains in North American Trade

USD/JPY: The market continues to remain extremely well bid on dips below 82.00, with the latest surge back above 83.00 really encouraging longer-term recovery prospects and opening the door for a potential break of key topside resistance by 84.50 over the coming days. Longer-term cyclical studies certainly suggest that the market could be poised for a major bullish reversal and we would look for a break and weekly close back above 84.50 to help confirm outlook. A break back below 82.00 would concern, while ultimately, only a back below 81.00 would negate.

Currencies_Looking_to_Extend_Gains_in_NA_body_gbp2.png, Currencies Looking to Extend Gains in North American Trade

GBP/USD: The market looks to have once again found a meaningful top by the 1.6300 barrier, with the latest setbacks resulting in a series of daily lower tops. From here we look for a break and close back below 1.6000 to confirm bias and accelerate declines back towards 1.5750 over the coming sessions. A daily close back above 1.6200 would give reason for concern, while ultimately only back above 1.6300 negates.

Currencies_Looking_to_Extend_Gains_in_NA_body_swiss1.png, Currencies Looking to Extend Gains in North American Trade

USD/CHF: Although the longer-term market remains under some intense pressure with the latest declines stalling just shy of the late 2010 record lows at 0.9300, inability to establish fresh record lows followed by a break back above 0.9500 leaves us constructive with our outlook from here. Next key topside barriers come in by 0.9785 and we now look for a weekly close above this level to accelerate gains and open a fresh upside extension back above parity and towards 1.0070 medium-term resistance from December 2010. Any setbacks from here are expected to be well supported ahead of 0.9500.

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Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

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