We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar gained versus SGD and IDR despite a “risk-on” tone in markets, boosted by strong declines in the Euro. What is the week ahead for $USDSGD, $USDIDR, $USDPHP and $USDMYR? #USD #ASEAN #Euro - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/02/17/US-Dollar-USDSGD-USDIDR-May-Rise-on-FOMC-Minutes-and-Repos.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/YMkZ4WhG0A
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC F) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: -3.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-17
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.63% Oil - US Crude: -0.02% Gold: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/oNEkMGVhyX
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.17% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/6TDJo3StbI
  • LIVE NOW: Join DailyFX Senior Strategist @IlyaSpivak LIVE as he discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead! https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/889679267
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.27%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 84.48%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Hp25WV8QCx
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Join DailyFX Senior Strategist @IlyaSpivak LIVE as he discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead! https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/889679267
  • #NOK, #AUD and #SEK are expected to be the most active G10 currencies vs USD with 1-week implied volatility at 7.35, 7.76 and 6.72, respectively
  • Tune in to @IlyaSpivak 's #webinar at 10:00 PM ET/3:00 AM GMT for insight on the cross market weekly outlook. Register here: https://t.co/E213bTtq5C https://t.co/Mh5NxU5BsU
  • RT @KyleR_IG: * PBOC OFFERS 1-YEAR MLF AT 3.15%, LOWERED FROM 3.25% PREVIOUSLY #ausbiz $cny
Euro Declines Accelerate on News of Troubles at WestLB

Euro Declines Accelerate on News of Troubles at WestLB

2011-02-14 11:30:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
Share:

While the Euro remains under mild pressure in Monday trade, with the single currency underperforming across the board, all other major currencies have done a good job of gaining back some ground against the Greenback. The official resignation of Egyptian President Mubarak on Friday has helped to re-infuse risk appetite back into the markets and this in conjunction with stable global equities have contributed to the currency rally. However, it has been all downhill for the Euro after the market confirmed a H&S topping formation following Friday’s bearish close, and setbacks have now accelerated on Monday, aided by some fresh downbeat news that German bank WestLB is on the verge of needing rescue. This has been the primary driver of the accelerated weakness on Monday, while slightly softer Eurozone industrial production numbers has not helped.

Relative Performance Versus USD Monday (As of 11:30GMT)

  1. JPY +0.10%
  2. CHF +0.04%
  3. AUD +0.03%
  4. CAD +0.02%
  5. GBP +0.01%
  6. NZD -0.57%
  7. EUR -0.64%

But again, most other major currencies are showing bid against the buck with even the Yen finding some fresh bids on the back of some not as bad local GDP. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has regained its footing, with some better than expected housing finance data helping to fuel the relative strength. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar which was already a strong outperformer in Friday trade, has managed to consolidate gains in light of the broader currency buying. But not the entire commodity bloc has been in demand on Monday, with Kiwi standing out as a relative underperformer following a much weaker than expected retail sales print. This has opened the door for some heavy cross related buying in AUD/NZD.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar for the remainder of the day is anemic. There are absolutely no economic releases scheduled in North America, with the only attention coming from Fed Dudley who is slated to speak at 15:00GMT. US equity futures are tracking marginally lower while commodities are mildly bid.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Euro_Declines_Accelerate_body_eur.png, Euro Declines Accelerate on News of Troubles at WestLB

EUR/USD:The latest rallies have stalled out well ahead of 1.3860 with the market finding some resistance by an ideal right shoulder top in the mid-1.3700’s ahead of the latest sharp setbacks. From here, the risks are tilted to the downside, with Friday’s break and close back below 1.3570 triggering the H&S topping formation and opening the door for a fresh downside extension towards the 1.3200 area over the coming days. Any rallies should continue to be well capped ahead of 1.3700 with only a break back above the figure to give reason for concern.

Euro_Declines_Accelerate_body_jpy2.png, Euro Declines Accelerate on News of Troubles at WestLB

USD/JPY: The market continues to remain extremely well bid on dips below 82.00, with the latest surge back above 83.00 really encouraging longer-term recovery prospects and opening the door for a potential break of key topside resistance by 84.50 over the coming days. Longer-term cyclical studies certainly suggest that the market could be poised for a major bullish reversal and we would look for a break and weekly close back above 84.50 to help confirm outlook. A break back below 82.00 would concern, while ultimately, only a back below 81.00 would negate.

Euro_Declines_Accelerate_body_gbp2.png, Euro Declines Accelerate on News of Troubles at WestLB

GBP/USD: The market looks to have once again found a meaningful top by the 1.6300 barrier, with the latest setbacks resulting in a series of daily lower tops. From here we look for a break and close back below 1.6000 to confirm bias and accelerate declines back towards 1.5750 over the coming sessions. A daily close back above 1.6200 would give reason for concern, while ultimately only back above 1.6300 negates.

Euro_Declines_Accelerate_body_swiss1.png, Euro Declines Accelerate on News of Troubles at WestLB

USD/CHF: Although the longer-term market remains under some intense pressure with the latest declines stalling just shy of the late 2010 record lows at 0.9300, inability to establish fresh record lows followed by a break back above 0.9500 leaves us constructive with our outlook from here. Next key topside barriers come in by 0.9785 and we now look for a weekly close above this level to accelerate gains and open a fresh upside extension back above parity and towards 1.0070 medium-term resistance from December 2010. Any setbacks from here are expected to be well supported ahead of 0.9500.

FLOWS

Domestic demand for USD/CAD. Dutch bank and hedge fund on the bid in GBP/USD. Model funds selling EUR/CHF. Leveraged accounts on the offer in NZD/USD. Also seeing buy-side demand for AUD/NZD cross. UK bank and US investment house selling EUR/JPY. UK clearer on the offer in EUR/GBP.

CLICK HERE FOR PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, email instructor@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

If you wish to discuss this or any other topic feel free to visit our Forum Page.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.