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Euro Needs Daily Close Below 1.3570 to Trigger Downside Acceleration

Euro Needs Daily Close Below 1.3570 to Trigger Downside Acceleration

2011-02-10 13:00:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Euro_Needs_Daily_Close_Below_1.3570_body_eur.png, Euro Needs Daily Close Below 1.3570 to Trigger Downside Acceleration

EUR/USD:Rallies have stalled out well ahead of 1.3860 with the market finding some resistance by an ideal right shoulder top in the mid-1.3700’s ahead of the latest minor setbacks. From here, the risks are tilted to the downside, with a break and close back below 1.3570 to like trigger the H&S topping formation and open a fresh downside extension towards the 1.3200 area over the coming days. Any rallies should continue to be well capped ahead of 1.3800 with only a break back above the figure to give reason for concern.

Euro_Needs_Daily_Close_Below_1.3570_body_jpy2.png, Euro Needs Daily Close Below 1.3570 to Trigger Downside Acceleration

USD/JPY: Despite the latest setbacks below 82.00 which had put the pressure back on the downside, the market remains well bid on dips. Last Friday’s price action was highly constructive and significant, with the market putting in an intense bullish outside day which consumed the previous 4 daily ranges. From here, we look for continued upside back towards 83.70 over the coming sessions, with a break above to accelerate towards more critical resistance at 84.50. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 81.50 with only a daily close back below 81.00 to negate.

Euro_Needs_Daily_Close_Below_1.3570_body_gbp2.png, Euro Needs Daily Close Below 1.3570 to Trigger Downside Acceleration

GBP/USD: The market looks to have once again found a meaningful top by the 1.6300 barrier, with the latest setbacks resulting in a series of daily lower tops. From here we look for a break and close back below 1.6025 to confirm bias and accelerate declines back towards 1.5800 over the coming sessions. A daily close back above 1.6200 would give reason for concern, while ultimately only back above 1.6300 negates.

Euro_Needs_Daily_Close_Below_1.3570_body_swiss1.png, Euro Needs Daily Close Below 1.3570 to Trigger Downside Acceleration

USD/CHF: Although the longer-term market remains under some intense pressure with the latest declines stalling just shy of the late 2010 record lows at 0.9300, inability to establish fresh record lows followed by a break back above 0.9500 leaves us constructive with our outlook from here. Lat Friday’s daily close above 0.9540 confirms and should help to accelerate gains towards 0.9785. Any intraday setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 0.9450.

FLOWS

Middle East demand seen in Eur/Usd and on euro crosses, with supply from a Swiss bank, ACB and Eastern European central bank. A UK corporate name has been buying Sterling against EUR and USD. Aud/Usd being sold by Asian and Swiss names with Aud/Jpy being sold by Japanese retail accounts.

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Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

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