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Risk Aversion Eases Ahead of NFPs

Risk Aversion Eases Ahead of NFPs

2010-07-02 09:06:00
Jonathan Granby;DailyFX Research Team,

 Joel is out of the office and will be returning on the 6th of July


European trade has proceeded quietly as all eyes remain fixed on the NFPs due at 12:30GMT. Asian markets also traded uneventfully over-night with little data on the docket to direct trade. Asia/Pacific bourses got an early lift from a compromise being reached regarding the controversial mining tax in Australia, but were unable to hold these gains. European equities have traded mildly higher but in largely directionless trade also with few economic release of note. 
Relative Performance Versus the USD on Friday (as of 9:15GMT) - 

1)AUD                +0.41%
2)KIWI               +0.35%
3)STERLING     +0.14%
4)CAD                +0.02%
5)EURO              -0.19%
6)YEN                  -0.33%
7)SWISSIE         -0.88%
The euro is trading mildly lower this morning following its impressive run higher late in NY and over-night up above 1.2500. The yen has slipped from its position of strength, the bounce in Usd/Jpy is particularly noteworthy considering the weakness of the dollar. Risk aversion has certainly eased moderately but the emphasis remains on a softer US outlook, which could easily find more fuel later today. 
The dollar has fallen from favour following the now lengthy string of weak data. The Usd Index hit a peak on June 7 but since then we have witnessed, poor housing and  retail sales, negative CPI, soft durable goods and a downward revision in GDP. Consumer confidence has also stumbled and the jobs market looks vulnerable, a point that may be reinforced later today.
Gold has been recouping some of its massive decline yesterday that saw the precious metal shed a hefty $42.70 and hit a $1,198 low, the lowest level since May 24. 
On the data front, Italian deficit to GDP ratio worsened in the first quarter and UK PMI construction marginally missed forecasts but was largely uninspiring, when considered with the latest housing data the property market looks bleak in the UK. Euro-zone unemployment came in better than forecast and PPI in the Euro-zone came in bang on forecasts. The Italian unemployment rate improved much more than expected. 
Looking ahead, US Non-farm payrolls (-110K expected) are due along with the unemployment rate (9.8% expected) at 12:30GMT. With change in manufacturing payrolls (23K expected) and change in private payrolls (113K expected) also due at 12:30GMT. US factory orders (-0.5% expected) caps data for the session at 14:00GMT. US equity futures are mildly higher, while commodities are well bid.
Written by Jonathan Granby, DailyFX Research Team

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