Nikkei – Drawing Closer Towards a Resolution
•Approaching a major breakout point
•Trend-line convergence in less than a month
•USDJPY to follow suit, or lead – however you want to look at it
The Nikkei (JPN225) probed multi-month lows just a couple of days ago, and had all observers’ full attention on the Index and USDJPY. So much focus on has been placed around the 14000 level in the Nikkei and 101/100.75 in USDJPY that it almost seemed as if it would be too easy to slice through.
There is some trend-line convergence in the Nikkei which indicates a break sometime between now and the 4th week of June. When exactly, anyone’s guess, but who cares, really? When it breaks, it breaks. Look for a clear daily close, first, followed by a weekly close outside of pattern lines for confirmation. The size and duration of this pattern, 2,000+ points and 7-months and running, suggests the move will be quite large. Short volatility players, you’ve been warned…
Nikkei (JPN225) – Daily
Source: FXCM Marketscope
Given the extremely high correlation between Japanese stocks and its currency, USDJPY will confirm one way or another. Correlation on a 1-month basis stands at 88%, but often runs well north of 90%. To avoid head fakes from one or the other, waiting for confirmation between the two, isn’t a bad way to go. Be patient, be patient, be patient….easier said than done, right?
In conclusion, we’ll get a move one of these days worthy of latching onto, and if the charts are right, we might have to wait a few weeks, but the wait will be worth it when it happens….
Written by Paul Robinson of FXSIMPLIFIED.COM
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.