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Guest Commentary: How to 'Steal a Base' to make a 1000-pips in USD/CAD

Guest Commentary: How to 'Steal a Base' to make a 1000-pips in USD/CAD

2013-03-14 14:30:00
Ed Matts, Technical Strategist
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* We remain long USDCAD in the aggressive 'Catchuptrend' to at least 1.0445.

* Our confidence in this trade allows us to add again with 1.0001 stops.

* A 'fractal Triangle' suggests we may to wait for the end of a correction in time and not distance.

Guest_Commentary_How_to_Steal_a_Base_to_make_a_1000-pips_in_USDCAD_body_Picture_1.png, Guest Commentary: How to 'Steal a Base' to make a 1000-pips in USD/CAD

Dollar Canada remains within an uptrend to into the first serious resistance area in the broad 1.0400-75 region. So we are staying long the Fat Pitch and the Home Run but the issue is what form the current correction is taking from 1.0340 and whether and where we could even 'steal a base'. Four factors help.

The first is the Fibonacci retracements. 1.0245 which we have seen already was the 23.6% and 1.0185 is the 38.2%.

Secondly 1.0185 will be approximately the broken major down channel highlighted on the daily perspective should the correction extend further.

But thirdly, what is shaping up like a triangle in the narrowing 1.0235-1.0340 suggests we have seen the low already and that the correction is in time rather than distance.

Fourthly, a repeating fractal in this triangle suggests at least one if not two more repeats and therefore a week of consolidation before it breaks higher to the major 1.0445 confluence target. (5=1, triangle breadth + high, and June 2012 high).

So we will either wait until the fractal plays out again or we get the unlikely spike down to 1.0185 to add or steal a base with stops below 1.01 looking to cut 2/3 of our long above 1.04.

Further videos or commentaries are available from www.marketvisiontv.com or @EdMatts on Twitter.

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