We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.45% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.40% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.30% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Sm5cszzGpO
  • Copper Price Outlook: Channel Support Holding, Eyes on the Resistance More details in the link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/05/29/Copper-Price-Outlook-Channel-Support-Holding-Eyes-on-the-Resistance-MK.html?CHID=9&QPID=917714 https://t.co/b4er2lMAWd
  • Canadian PM Trudeau says that Canada will keep pressing China over Hong Kong - BBG
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.56% Wall Street: -0.67% France 40: -1.58% Germany 30: -1.67% FTSE 100: -2.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/wDSyL6upx6
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speech due at 15:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-29
  • EU global trade forecast for 2020 reduced by EU868B - BBG
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9tTif https://t.co/DGS11IMvcd
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.25% Gold: 0.65% Oil - US Crude: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/baGqMWQ4zE
  • 🇺🇸 Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final Actual: 2.7% Previous: 2.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-29
  • 🇺🇸 Michigan Inflation Expectations Final Actual: 3.2% Previous: 2.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-29
Guest Commentary: The AUD/USD Confluence Trade…

Guest Commentary: The AUD/USD Confluence Trade…

2013-02-15 16:00:00
Ed Matts, Technical Strategist
Share:

* Where different views coincide this raises the probability of a trade significantly.

* So although we have squared our long held AUDUSD shorts, a confluence suggests it is time to sell again but with some degree of monitoring and flexibility.

Guest_Commentary_The_AUDUSD_Confluence_Trade_body_Picture_1.png, Guest Commentary: The AUD/USD Confluence Trade…

In our bid continually to find higher probability better risk/return trading set ups, one word features strongly: confluence. Where more than one levels particularly Fibonacci retracements coincides the probability of that level working increases. Where a 61.8% of a shorter move is same as the 38.2% of the major move its worth noting. The Same with Viewswhere a apparently diametrically opposing views bullish and bearish coincide the probability of that coincidence working increases significantly. So welcome to the Confluence trade.

We are selling the Aussie again.. Since our defiant stand against the extreme bullish sentiment at 1.06..the top of the daily triangle, we have stayed short and used a series of apparently similar (irregular) corrections to sell more... until 1.0255. The end of a possible 5W trend sequence (with an extended 5th wave) from 1.06 but also the end of a possible C=A down-leg within a triangle within that Sierpinski triangle. So we squared shorts expecting the 1.0235 region to hold for at least more consolidation and another corrective rally but to where

Given the 1.0150-1.06 range, the 61.8% retracement of 1.0460 would appear conservative given the possibility of retesting the 1.06 high and its possible if not likely. So the (5W) recovery to 1.0370-80 the 38.2% should represent the first leg of that correction begging at least a retracement to 1.0280 (61.8%) before higher.

However, one of the reasons we stayed short until 1.0255 was the striking similarity with previous price action from April 2012 which continues. This called for the marginal new low to 1.0235 before a stop seeking overlapping rally only to 1.0380 just beyond the 38.2% before Aussie breaks down at least to attack the 1.0150 low. And we here are ....at the end then of another possible irregular correction to the c=1.618a and strikingly similar to the previous correction. So we are selling expecting 1.0380 to 1.0400 to cap for both a possible correction to 1.0280 but with potential to accelerate…However where this confluence ends at 1.0280 unless there is evidence to the contrary we will reduce shorts as the probability shifts and as 1.0230 again survives or than 48 hours then the probability will shifts again in favor of a larger correction through 1.04 to 1.0460 and possibly 1.06 before breaking down.

Further videos or commentaries are available from ww.marketvisiontv.com or @EdMatts on Twitter.

Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to research@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.