Guest Commentary: Will the Last Aussie SHIFT Trader turn out the Lights?
* The AUD/USD remains in the last and Tedium Leg of the Medium Term SHIFT (Shifting Sentiment) Triangle and therefore has further scope to retrace lower.
* However, in the shorter term it remains within a rising wedge driving away traders with each leg.
* As it breaks higher a final time, we expect to be one of the few trading the Aussie as enters a very exciting new period.
The Aussie remains within a rising wedge doing everything it should to deter positions in what has proved so accurately to be the disinterested the Tedium leg of the medium term SHIFT triangle.. highlighted on the Daily Perspective.
So having retraced in a 3 wave corrective decline to 1.0285 the D leg of a 5 legged rising wedge and crucially held the key 1.0235 we remain short term, bullish. Indeed the strong recovery to just beyond our 1.0410 61.8% short term target is constructive and therefore should represent the first of a three rally to new highs.
So having retraced again to just beyond the 61.8% to 1.0335, it is now in a position to ramp... with a break of 1.0425 and 1.0480 to signal new highs to 1.0525 the E=A in the wedge possibly as high as 1.0540-60 the c=1.618a short term objective and daily triangle resistance.
So just as the market gets completely bullish and wrong in the face of the key 1.0620 high just as the wedge completes we will cover longs and sell for an initial return to 1.0235-85 but eventually breaking down through 1.0150.
Where we are wrong.. above 1.0620.
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