Guest Commentary: USDCAD: The Maple Keeps Producing Pips!
* The USDCAD remains within the 96.35-9885 prolonged consolidation before a likely marginal new low highlighted in the Daily perspective.
Since the 9885 peak the sharp drop to 9730 would suggest its only the first leg of a longer deeper retracement. However, representing 61.8% of the rally it seems and could just as easily remain be the first leg of a higher 9730-9885 consolidation range.
This is supported by the Maple Leaf analogy which suggests $ Canada is the equivalent of March 26th 2012 today and the three legged strong retest of the 9885 high a B wave.
Both suggest more consolidation and that the Dollar will therefore fade below 9800 for at least another failed attempt at the 9860-90 highs before another failed retest of the 9730 low.
Back in March this interim consolidation proved to be a B wave triangle that produced a final spike higher.. Then it hardly exceeded the equivalent of 9890…Should it spike above 9890 we would only expect 9915-40 before it breaks down through 9720 to test and spike the 9635 low. An erratic and difficult range market but one with plenty of opportunity
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