Guest Commentary: Why We are Selling the Dull AUDUSD Market!
* The AUDUSD remains in the latter stages of the SHIFT (Shifting Sentiment) Triangle and therefore has further scope to retrace lower.
* Since the last leg should be 'Tedious' there are 3 reasons why we are encouraged in our short-near term bearish view.
* The question then is where do we resell?
The Aussie remains within the pivotal but we suspect bearish 1.0165-1.0620 consolidation in the latter stages of the broad medium term triangle highlighted in the Daily Perspective.
So following the first leg of a larger decline to 1.0365, the Aussie has been slowing in an expansion and a likely irregular correction. This is perfect for 3 reasons. First the slowing of price action is consistent the growing disinterest or Tedium the That we should see in the last stages of the SHIFT triangle. Secondly, the B wave low reflects inherent short term weakness and thirdly, suggests we are still right to be selling against the 1.0620 high for a loss now of 1.0330 to accelerate short term weakness at least.
The question is where do we resell.. Ordinarily because of inherent weakness we should only look for C=A which is 1.0480 and also 50% of the first decline but with 10500 stops as 1.0620 stops in this market is pretty wide. Indeed given the month/quarter end it is possible that it could follow the last February 2012 price action with a stronger c=1.618a top 1.0570 proving a much better risk return sell. Either way a loss of 1.0330 should now yield 165-pips minimum.
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