Guest Commentary: A Very Sharp but Short-lived AUDUSD Decline is Coming!
* The 1.0325 top suggests an irregular market projecting a very sharp but short-lived spike lower.
* Only when this weakness fades or 1.0325 yields can the triangle up-leg continue.
* We are attempting cautious shorts only on this rally with 1.0330 stops
The Aussie remains in a curious market right in the middle of the medium term triangle.
The failure to maintain the break of the seemingly once pivotal 1.0225 has increasingly encouraged our view of an irregular market (a B wave high particularly since 1.0325 represented the 1.382 of the A leg).
All we need then is a 5 wave decline to the end C leg and thew drop to 1.0150 has completed a 5 wave decline to just beyond the 61.8% of A objective at 1.0165. Is that enough? Such inherent strength would be fine if we thought we were about to have an impending bull market. But since this forms part of a triangle, then 1.0150 is likely the first leg of a larger C a larger wave decline.
So although 1.0125-50 should hold for 24-48 hours and an ideal spike back above 1.0225 into the 50-61.8% to 1.0260, as the Aussie still fades below the 1.0325 recent high, there will be scope to accelerate the decline through 1.0125-50 well beyond the C=A at 1.0065 to 99.05 the 1.618A and 50% retracement.
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