News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Guest Commentary: A Very Sharp but Short-lived AUDUSD Decline is Coming!

Guest Commentary: A Very Sharp but Short-lived AUDUSD Decline is Coming!

Ed Matts,,

* The 1.0325 top suggests an irregular market projecting a very sharp but short-lived spike lower.

* Only when this weakness fades or 1.0325 yields can the triangle up-leg continue.

* We are attempting cautious shorts only on this rally with 1.0330 stops

Guest_Commentary_A_Very_sharp_but_Shortlived_AUDUSD_decline_is_coming_body_AUD1007.png, Guest Commentary: A Very Sharp but Short-lived AUDUSD Decline is Coming!

The Aussie remains in a curious market right in the middle of the medium term triangle.

The failure to maintain the break of the seemingly once pivotal 1.0225 has increasingly encouraged our view of an irregular market (a B wave high particularly since 1.0325 represented the 1.382 of the A leg).

All we need then is a 5 wave decline to the end C leg and thew drop to 1.0150 has completed a 5 wave decline to just beyond the 61.8% of A objective at 1.0165. Is that enough? Such inherent strength would be fine if we thought we were about to have an impending bull market. But since this forms part of a triangle, then 1.0150 is likely the first leg of a larger C a larger wave decline.

So although 1.0125-50 should hold for 24-48 hours and an ideal spike back above 1.0225 into the 50-61.8% to 1.0260, as the Aussie still fades below the 1.0325 recent high, there will be scope to accelerate the decline through 1.0125-50 well beyond the C=A at 1.0065 to 99.05 the 1.618A and 50% retracement.

Further videos or commentaries are available from or @EdMatts on Twitter.

Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.