News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Dollar Outlook: Fed Decision Due - Will it Spark Fireworks? The $DXY edged lower on Tuesday with $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, and $USDJPY all feeling Dollar weakness. Will the Fed catch markets off-guard with another hawkish surprise tomorrow? Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2021/07/27/us-dollar-outlook-fed-decision-due-will-it-spark-fireworks.html https://t.co/iTt0jJiuUC
  • Crude oil prices are trading largely unchanged following last week's rebound as the Delta variant of Covid and Chinese regulatory measures temper the near-term demand outlook. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/T3oQa9qksd https://t.co/qgDReDbtcd
  • USD/JPY price action has weakened sharply on the session but is searching for support. Get your $USDJPY market update from @RichDvorakFX here:https://t.co/s6baPFYuS3 https://t.co/1ze3cKJytb
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Stocks Decline Despite Stellar Tech Earnings, All Eyes Shift to Fed $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $QQQ $NDX L…
  • $SPX put in for an impressive midday recovery this past session leaving a large lower wick. The scale of the lower wicks consistently larger than corrections off highs https://t.co/BGkiFUwYsk
  • 🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (JUL) Actual: 103.2 Previous: 110.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-27
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.44% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.13% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.46% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/foLJDv5tkA
  • US API Stock Changes Crude -4.728M Cushing -0.126M Gasoline -6.226M Distillate -1.882M #OOTT $CL_F
  • RT @Nadex: The Macro Setup is back! Tune in as @GuyAdami, @RiskReversal, and special guest @CVecchioFX discuss: -Stocks lower ahead of big…
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (JUL) due at 21:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 110.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-27
Euro Q3 Technical Forecast: Weakness on the Horizon?

Euro Q3 Technical Forecast: Weakness on the Horizon?

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Euro, EUR/USD, Technical Forecast – Talking Points

  • Long-term trendline from 2020 key to sustaining upside price action
  • RSI Divergence and weakening MACD indicate potential weakness ahead

To read the full Euro forecast including the fundamental outlook, download our new 3Q trading guide from the DailyFX Free Trading Guides!

Long-term trendline enough to keep EUR/USD pacing higher as price grapples with the 200-day SMA?

The Euro performed well against the US Dollar through the first two months of the second quarter, although a bout of weakness hit the currency pair in June. Still, EUR/USD managed to find support at a long-term trendline stemming from the 2020 March swing low. Price may continue rising through the coming months should the rising support level hold.

That said, price may still be in danger of breaking lower, with a recent drop below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) being a cause for concern. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is on pace to cross below its center line after dropping below the signal line, a bearish momentum signal.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

euro weekly chart

Chart created with TradingView

Pulling out to the monthly timeframe puts attention on the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (1.2211) from the January to March move where price stalled out after a two-month rally. Alternatively, the 38.2% and 23.6% Fib levels appear to be providing a level of support. A break to either side of the 78.6% or 23.6% Fibs could see an accelerated move.

One concern for Euro bulls is a negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) between the January and May highs (as shown by the green line on the RSI indicator). Moreover, the MACD line is begging to shift lower towards its signal line, adding to the negative picture seen on the weekly timeframe above.

EUR/USD Monthly Chart

Euro monthly chart

Chart created with TradingView

To read the full Euro forecast including the fundamental outlook, download our new 3Q trading guide from the DailyFX Free Trading Guides!

--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES