News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/BPHuKecwnz https://t.co/73OmuCKfU9
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/KzhQnGiLyt
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cuneuJNZlH
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/danCiP5vqK
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/JhYoQ7I19K
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/BEYupi32qB https://t.co/PWeXE8tZVY
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/t34kotPE8R
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/lM1OIJdjhr
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/6qGEVjDlN6
  • Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region. Get your #Bitcoin forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/T7iAD0fbbU https://t.co/xVSG7nKIQG
Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Advertisement

July FX Seasonality Overview:

  • “Sell in May and go away” hasn’t been a real phenomenon for the US S&P 500 in recent years.
  • It’s one of the best times of the year for gold prices, which have been under pressure ever since the June Federal Reserve policy meeting.
  • Declining US rate hike odds at the start of the month coupled with unfavorable seasonality metrics suggests traders should be cautious about the US Dollar’s rally.

The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For July, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during the era of quantitative easing and expanding government deficits since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the environment we find ourselves in during the coronavirus pandemic recovery.

Monthly Forex Seasonality Summary – July 2021

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

Forex Seasonality in Euro (via EUR/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a bullish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +1.31%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fifth best of the year, averaging a gain of +0.15%.

Forex Seasonality in British Pound (via GBP/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a slightly bullish month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the sixth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.3%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fifth best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.17%.

Forex Seasonality in Japanese Yen (via USD/JPY)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a very bearish month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.62%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.86%.

Forex Seasonality in Australian Dollar (via AUD/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a very bullish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +1.45%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year, averaging a gain +0.40%.

Forex Seasonality in New Zealand Dollar (via NZD/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a very bullish month for NZD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.89%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.91%.

Forex Seasonality in Canadian Dollar (via USD/CAD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a very bearish month for USD/CAD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the third worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.87%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.19%.

Forex Seasonality in Swiss Franc (via USD/CHF)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a slightly bearish month for USD/CHF, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the seventh worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.32%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.14%.

Forex Seasonality in US S&P 500

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a very bullish month for the US S&P 500, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the third best month of the year for the index, averaging a gain of +3.18%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third best month of the year, averaging a gain of +1.02%. “Sell in May and go away” hasn’t been a real phenomenon recently.

Forex Seasonality in Gold (via XAU/USD)

Monthly Forex Seasonality - July 2021: Good for Gold, US Stocks; Bad for US Dollar

July is a very bullish month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year for the precious metal, averaging a gain of +2.69%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third best month of the year, averaging a gain of +2.04%.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES