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Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR WEEKLY TECHNICAL FORECAST – NEUTRAL

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The Australian Dollar has traded largely mixed against key FX peers like the US Dollar, Yen, and New Zealand Dollar over recent trading sessions. AUD/USD price action finished flat last week after whipsawing around the Fed update. AUD/JPY was also little changed as the Aussie closed out the week on its back foot after surrendering earlier gains. AUD/NZD gyrated similarly with Australian Dollar bulls reversing initial weakness versus the Kiwi. That all said, is there potential for Australian Dollar strength to broadly resume in the week ahead?

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AUD/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (06 NOV 2020 TO 19 MAR 2021)

AUDUSD Price Chart Australian Dollar Technical Forecast

AUD/USD price action found support around its 100-day simple moving average earlier this month and has formed a string of higher lows ever since. The Australian Dollar continues to face pushback near the 0.7830-price level, however, and may struggle to reclaim this technical resistance level. This brings focus to the potential formation of a bullish ascending triangle pattern.

AUD/USD Bullish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% 8% 4%
Weekly -12% 19% 3%
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Australian Dollar bulls might look to keep AUD/USD price action afloat above its 50-day simple moving average. Breaching this area of buoyancy could motivate AUD/USD bears to make a push toward its bottom Bollinger Band. To that end, failure to surmount and flatten out the downward-sloping 20-day simple moving average may see AUD/USD gravitate lower.

AUD/JPY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (06 NOV 2020 TO 19 MAR 2021)

AUDJPY Price Chart Australian Dollar Technical Forecast

AUD/JPY price action pulled back from a fresh 37-month high late last week to test prior resistance-turned-support. This area around the 84.00-handle is roughly highlighted by the 24 February close. The 20-day simple moving average, which broadly underpins the bullish trend propelling AUD/JPY higher for most of the year, adds another layer of defense to this potential zone of confluent support.

AUD/JPY Mixed
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 2% -1%
Weekly 7% -1% 2%
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Australian Dollar bulls have struggled to maintain upward momentum, however. This is emphasized by bearish divergence on the relative strength index. Not to mention, the latest wave of AUD/JPY weakness has coincided with a bearish MACD crossover. A breakdown below the 20-day simple moving average could bring the 82.00-price level into focus for AUD/JPY bears. Nonetheless, the direction of the Australian Dollar likely hinges broadly on the ebb and flow of market sentiment.

AUD/NZD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (31 JUL 2020 TO 19 MAR 2021)

AUDNZD Price Chart Australian Dollar Technical Forecast

AUD/NZD price action faced selling pressure early last week, but Australian Dollar bulls stepped in around the 20-day simple moving average and sent the currency pair rebounding back higher. The Aussie-Kiwi continues to contend with a key technical obstacle, however, underscored by the 1.08-level and year-to-date highs. This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of last year’s bearish leg.

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Topping the 19 January high on a closing basis could clear the way for AUD/NZD to extend its climb toward the 1.0900-mark as this might indicate a breakout from the ascending triangle pattern. On the other hand, another rejection of this technical resistance level might see AUD/NZD snap back lower to test last week’s lows. A heartier push by Australian Dollar bears below the 50-day moving average could see the 26 February close come into focus.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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