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Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie March Lower- AUD/USD Eyes 2021 Low

Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie March Lower- AUD/USD Eyes 2021 Low

Michael Boutros,
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Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD reversal looks to challenge 2021 range lows
  • Aussie key support into 7563– key resistance back at 7836

The Australian Dollar has plummeted more than 4.8% against the US Dollar off the January highs with the late-February sell-off carrying over into the start of March trade. The reversal off multi-year highs threatens a deeper correction in the weeks ahead – our focus is on a reaction on a test of the yearly range lows just lower. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart heading into the close of the year. for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and more.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

audusd chart

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes:In last month’s Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the AUD/USD breakout kept, “the broader focus higher in price but the advance may be vulnerable into the close of the month as weekly momentum stretches into multi-year highs.” An outside-week reversal candle off the highs into the February close on building momentum divergence highlighted the threat for Aussie exhaustion with price now attempting to mark a weekly close back below yearly open support at 7701 (note that the yearly high-week close now comes in at 7705).

Weekly support now rests at the yearly opening-range lows at 7563 and is backed closely by basic trendline support extending off the late-April lows- a break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered last month with such a scenario exposing initial support objectives at the May 2017 low-week close at ~7385. Initial resistance steady at 7701/05 with a breach / close above 7836 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

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Bottom line: The Australian Dollar now risks a deeper March correction with the AUD/USD price reversal approaching multi-month uptrend support. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 7563 / channel support- keep an eye for a larger reaction there IF reached. Ultimately, a larger setback may offer more favorable opportunities with a close back above this week’s highs needed to reassert the broader long-bias. Review my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.01 (50.22% of traders are long) – neutralreading
  • Long positions are 11.09% lower than yesterday and 24.57% higher from last week
  • Short positions are2.74% lower than yesterday and 6.47% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -15% 8% -7%
Weekly 15% -33% -10%
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.