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Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Flirting with March Trend-line Break

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Flirting with March Trend-line Break

Paul Robinson, Strategist

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

  • AUD/USD trying to hold onto the March trend-line
  • Bull-flag could come to fruition with a little more time
  • Overall, bias is based on the trend-line, pattern development

AUD/USD trying to hold the March trend-line

AUD/USD is doing its best to hold onto the March trend-line, a threshold that many markets have been nearing lately. A breakdown of the trend-line doesn’t necessarily turn the outlook bearish, but would undermine the developing bull-flag pattern.

The pattern has been forming for a month, and with a little more time it could trigger by seeing price cross above the upper parallel. A breakout could set into motion a push above 7820 and may drive price closer to the Jan ’18 swing-high at 8140.

At the moment, the March trend-line may offer a good risk/reward spot for would-be longs, with a break of the bull-flag adding to a bullish bias. A break below the March trend-line turns things mildly bearish, with the September high at 7413 the next major swing level to watch as support.

AUD/USD Daily Chart (trying to hold March trend-line)

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD 4-hr Chart (bull-flag forming)

AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart

AUD/USD Charts by TradingView

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.