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Gold Price Outlook: Gold Weekly Reversal- Bear Market Rally or More?

Gold Price Outlook: Gold Weekly Reversal- Bear Market Rally or More?

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

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Gold prices are poised to snap a two-week losing streak with XAU/USD up more than 1.3% to trade at 1856 in early US trade on Friday. An outside weekly-reversal marks the second occurrence in just three weeks and while this development would typically be considered constructive, the rebound keeps price within the broader August decline and the focus is on a break of this week’s range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly charts heading into the close of the month. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Outlook: Gold Weekly Reversal- Bear Market Rally or More?

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that an early-month breakout in the XAU/USD was already approaching Major resistance and to, “look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a test of 1956.” Price registered a high at 1959 before marking an outside weekly-reversal lower to close that week back below confluence resistance at the 2011 high week close / high close at 1897/1909.

The decline rebounded this week off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November advance at 1806 and the focus is on this recovery. Initial resistance at the August channel line (currently ~1880s) with a breach / close above 1897/1909 still needed to shift the broader focus higher towards 1956 once again. Critical support rests at the highlighted trendline confluence around the 50% retracement at 1763 – a break below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario exposing 1682/89.

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Bottom line: The gold price rebound keeps XAU/USD within the confines of the August downtrend. From a trading standpoint, the threat for a larger correction remains while below 1909 – look for topside exhaustion ahead of this threshold on recoveries IF price is heading lower. Ultimately a deeper pullback may offer more favorable opportunities closer to trend support with a breach above 1956 needed to mark trend resumption. Stay nimble here- expecting some volatility in the days ahead. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Price Outlook: Gold Weekly Reversal- Bear Market Rally or More?
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +4.22 (80.84% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are3.31% lower than yesterday and 10.36% lower from last week
  • Short positions are5.30% lower than yesterday and 11.67% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias.
Gold Mixed
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% 9% 2%
Weekly 6% -5% 4%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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