Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Monthly Forex Seasonality - January 2021: Start of Year Favors CAD, Gold Strength; USD Weakness

Monthly Forex Seasonality - January 2021: Start of Year Favors CAD, Gold Strength; USD Weakness

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Advertisement

January FX Seasonality Overview:

  • January typically brings about US Dollar weakness, while the commodity currencies (and commodities themselves) tend to do well.
  • US Dollar seasonal weakness (via-a-vis the DXY Index) has been historically compelled by a stronger British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc.
  • Gold prices typically shine at the start of the year, and the 5-year performance exceeds what is an impressive 10-year track record.

The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For January, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during the era of quantitative easing and expanding government deficits since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis.

Monthly Forex Seasonality Summary – January 2021

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Forex Seasonality in Euro (via EUR/USD)

January is a bullish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.91%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.22%.

Forex Seasonality in British Pound (via GBP/USD)

January is a bullish month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +1.20%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the second best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.35%.

Forex Seasonality in Japanese Yen (via USD/JPY)

January is a bearish month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -1.37%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.59%.

Forex Seasonality in Australian Dollar (via AUD/USD)

January is a slightly bullish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.82%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year, averaging a loss of -0.10%.

Forex Seasonality in New Zealand Dollar (via NZD/USD)

January is a slightly bullish month for NZD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fifth best month of the year for the pair, averaging a gain of +0.59%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the seventh best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.12%.

Forex Seasonality in Canadian Dollar (via USD/CAD)

January is a mixed month for USD/CAD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -1.19%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the third best month of the year, averaging a gain of +0.73%.

Forex Seasonality in Swiss Franc (via USD/CHF)

January is a bearish month for USD/CHF, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the third worst month of the year for the pair, averaging a loss of -0.87%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the second worst month of the year, averaging a loss of -1.18%.

Forex Seasonality in US S&P 500

January is a bullish month for the US S&P 500, from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year for the index, averaging a gain of +2.01%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the fourth best month of the year, averaging a gain of +1.50%.

Forex Seasonality in Gold (via XAU/USD)

January is a very bullish month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the best month of the year for the precious metal, averaging a gain of +4.38%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the best month of the year, averaging a gain of +3.80%.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES