News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here:
  • RT @FxWestwater: Japanese Yen Forecast: JPY Crosses Eye BoJ, CPI as Haven Flows Bolster Yen Strength Link: https:/…
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • Stocks appear to be in a corrective phase but could get put to the test; levels and lines to watch in the days ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here:
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on AUD with our free guide, available today:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here:
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
Japanese Yen 1Q 2021 Forecast: Key Trend Breaks Hint at Sustained Losses

Japanese Yen 1Q 2021 Forecast: Key Trend Breaks Hint at Sustained Losses

Daniel Moss, Analyst

JPY Technical Forecast: Bearish

  • AUD/JPY poised to extend recent gains after slicing through the 200-day moving average.
  • NZD/JPY eyeing push to multi-year highs after clearing long-term trend resistance.

Coming Soon! Download the NEW 1st Quarter Forecast Live on Monday on our Free Trading Guides Page!

The haven-associated Japanese Yen has lost significant ground against the cyclically-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars, falling over 31% and 24% respectively since topping at the height of the coronavirus crash in March. These losses look set to extend into the first quarter of 2021 as both exchange rates breach key long-term resistance.

AUD/JPY Weekly Chart – Break Above 200-MA Hints at Further Gains

Japanese Yen 1Q 2021 Forecast: Key Trend Breaks Hint at Sustained Losses

AUD/JPY weekly chart created using TradingView

The AUD/JPY exchange rate seems poised to extend its recent surge from its lowest levels since early 2009, as prices break back above the sentiment-defining 200-week moving average (78.07) for the first time since 2018, and breach the downtrend extending from the 2014 high.

With the RSI holding constructively above 60, and the MACD tracking firmly above its neutral midpoint, the path of least resistance looks to favor the upside.

A weekly close above psychological resistance at 79.00 would probably signal the resumption of the primary uptrend and bring the 2019 high (80.71) into focus. Clearing that likely opens the door for buyers to begin probing the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (84.67).

Conversely, sliding back below the 200-MA could trigger a short-term pullback towards the December low (76.90), with a weekly close below carving a path for price to challenge confluent support at the 21-MA (75.59) and former resistance-turned-support at the 2014 downtrend.

NZD/JPY Weekly Chart – Snapping 2014 Downtrend May Trigger Topside Push

Japanese Yen 1Q 2021 Forecast: Key Trend Breaks Hint at Sustained Losses

NZD/JPY weekly chart created using TradingView

The longer-term outlook for NZD/JPY rates also seems skewed to the topside, as prices break above the psychologically imposing 73.00 mark and slice through the 200-MA (72.93) for the first time since December 2018.

However, bearish RSI divergence hints at fading bullish momentum and suggests that NZD/JPY could be at risk of a short-term pullback, if sellers successfully hurdle support at the December low (72.96).

That being said, with the MACD indicator storming to its highest levels since July 2017 and price tracking firmly above all four moving averages, the path of least resistance seems to lead higher.

A weekly close above the 50% Fibonacci (74.25) would probably neutralize near-term selling pressure and carve a path for prices to challenge the 2019 high (76.78). Breaching that likely propels NZD/JPY towards key resistance at the 100% Fibonacci (80.33).

Alternatively, a weekly close back below the 200-MA may allow sellers to regain control of the exchange rate and drive prices back to key support at the June high (71.67). A convincing break below may invalidate bullish potential and bring the 100-MA (71.10) into the crosshairs.

-- Written by Daniel Moss, Analyst for DailyFX

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.