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AUD/USD Technical Outlook – Australian Dollar May Experience Setback vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Technical Outlook – Australian Dollar May Experience Setback vs US Dollar

Paul Robinson, Strategist

AUD/USD Technical Outlook – Australian Dollar May Experience Setback vs US Dollar

The move higher in Aussie may at the least pause in the coming week as the trend becomes extended; short-term technical structure to watch.

AUD/USD Highlights:

  • AUD/USD extended as new week arrives
  • Channel on the 4-hr chart to act as a guide

AUD/USD traded to its highest levels since early June 2018 in last week’s trade, a generally impressive feat considering where it was back in March. In the near-term the trend could at the least pause, if not experience an outright pullback.

To help guide the trading bias in the week ahead eyes will be on the 4-hr chart, where AUD/USD broke out from the confines of an orderly upward channel. It had been inside this structure for nearly a month, and with its recent move outside it could act as a “throw-over.”

A throw-over is an event that marks an exhaustion in the trend, commonly seen at the end of a clean orderly move like the one we have seen in Aussie. Using the upper parallel is the key from this point forward.

The top-side parallel was once considered resistance, so now it turns into the first source of support. Hold the line and a consolidation or immediate rise off it could unfold. This of course keeps the upside intact. Break below and this is where the recent leg higher becomes validated as a throw-over.

In this second scenario, this is where you will often times see a break to the bottom-side of the channel (again first to be treated as support) with an eventual break of it that potentially leading to an aggressive move lower.

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AUD/USD Daily Chart (highest levels since June 2018)

AUD/USD 1d Chart

AUD/USD 4-hr Chart (using channel as guide)

AUD/USD 4h Chart

AUD/USD Charts by TradingView

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Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.