Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Australian Dollar Eyes China Q3 GDP Data, Earnings Rising Covid-19 Cases

Australian Dollar Eyes China Q3 GDP Data, Earnings Rising Covid-19 Cases

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst


What's on this page
AUDUSD Price Chart

Chart created with TradingView

Australian Dollar Fundamental Outlook: Mixed

  • Australian Dollar closely watching Chinese GDP data as economic activity picks up
  • Q3 earnings will be critical to watch. Big names include Tesla, Netflix and Chipotle
  • Spiking Covid-19 cases, specter of strict lockdown measures could haunt the Aussie

China Q3 GDP Data, Retail Sales Reports

As Australia’s largest trading partner, Chinese economic data carries a premium and has a proclivity for eliciting notable price action from the cycle-sensitive AUD. Year-on-year Q3 GDP data is anticipated to show a 5.5% print, far higher than the previous 3.2% figure. On the same time frame year-to-date, economists estimate a 0.7% growth report, also far above the prior -1.6% print.

Retail sales are also expected to beat estimates, which if they do could bolster risk appetite – particularly in the region – and push AUD higher along with regional currencies that strongly rely on robust Chinese growth. Monitoring these indicators will be key especially since Australia-Sino relations have deteriorated amid the coronavirus pandemic.

To learn more about regional political risks, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.

Earnings Data on Deck

This week, a cascade of earnings data will be flooding markets and could stir volatility. Some big names include: Lockheed Martin, Coca-Cola, Netflix, UBS, Tesla, Chipotle, IBM, Halliburton and Tesla. Stocks like Netflix and Tesla which have surged amid the pandemic may outperform their peers and add onto their double-digit returns since March.

Coronavirus Cases Souring Sentiment, Growth Prospects

Many countries are experiencing a second wave of Covid-19 infections, with states like France reporting over 30,000 cases in day. Both Paris and London are going to impose new, stricter lockdown measures to curtail the sudden spike. If other governments experience also experience a flare up and impose similar measures, it could derail what is an already-precarious and bumpy recovery.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Dimitri Zabelin
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide

As a growth-anchored currency, the Aussie would likely especially suffer if the demand for iron ore – a key growth input and Australia’s biggest export – declines. The IMF recently warned that: “While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks”.

With the economy weakened by the coronavirus, markets are predisposed to violent bouts of volatility, especially if the source of uncertainty is coming from geopolitics, a notoriously fickle risk. This may help explain why the 2020 US Presidential election and ongoing fiscal stimulus talks are so important: the binary outcome and bipartisan intransience carries significant economic implications.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitri on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.